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Replies to post #38921 on GOLDBUGS AMEX Goldbugs Index (GOLD)
05/05/18 9:01 AM
OUR ANALYTICAL OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. May. 4, 2018: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 131470 and is trading up about 0.41% for the year from last year's closing of 130930. Thus far, we traded down the previous day. Immediately, the market was an inside trading session warning of a brief pause in trend following the high established Thu. May. 3, 2018. Employing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 135770 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 131310. This provides a 3.28% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 135770 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 111520. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 17%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
Focusing on our timing models, it is possible to see a turning point come this month in NY Gold Nearest Futures. Remember to stay on point given this possible development ahead. Last month produced a high at 136940 and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 131070 closing yesterday at 131470. We now need to close beneath 131070 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now.
Observing the near-term level, the market has closed up 25.2% from the last cycle low established during 2015, which has been only a 2 year rally from that event. However, from the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 417.5% from the strategic low established during 1999, which has been a 18 year rally from that key event.
Observing the near-term level, the market has closed down 4.95% from the last cycle high established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year decline. Now bearing in mind the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 31.9% from the strategic high established during 2011, which has been a 6 year move.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is bearish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 130230.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 9th at 136940, which was up 17 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 11th. We have been generally trading down for the past 3 weeks, which has been a moderate move of .0489%.
Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of April 9th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 136540 made back during the week of January 22nd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the the week of October 16th. This immediate decline has so far held the previous low formed at 123830 made the week of December 11th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. . Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Considering the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 3 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 136940, which was created during the week of April 9th. The last weekly level low was 123830, which formed during the week of December 11th. That is critical technical support and a breach of that low would warn of the potential shift in near-term trend. However, we still remain above key support 130660 on a closing basis.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 137750 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during July 2016. Critical support still underlies this market at 111520 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still holding. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market has been in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 28 months. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015, and only a break of 130360 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 137750, which was created during July 2016, and the market has turned lower falling to 130230. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
