JJ, thank you for your insights and analysis ... prior to your posts, my thoughts were that today's posts were a waste of my (and everyone's) time in reading this board.
What a great sentence JJ. I've given much thought to this and I have to agree with you 100%. I was critical of Missling as I watched paper $$$ disappear in my portfolio. Hindsight being 20/20 as always, I take this back, and truly believe the guy has a plan and knows what he is doing. So do the people around him, who are undoubtedly helping Missling make critical decisions.
If I am fighting a fire and during the first hour of Initial Attack, I devise a certain set of tactics and crew movements based on the current/expected fire behavior and weather, but conditions change and I don't adjust, what will be the outcome?? Maybe the original plan will work, or, maybe the plan gets firefighters injured or killed. I would be negligent in my duties if I don't adjust as "things change" around me. I don't just roll the dice and hope for the best. Decisions that define success or failure CANNOT be taken lightly. Usually with failure, its not one big decision that leads to failure, it a bunch of little decision and missed "hints" that change is needed that snowballs into failure". Hindsight makes me think Missling made the right choice, as he utilized all available resources and data to help guide his decision making.
Needless to say, I own more shares of Anavex than I ever have.
Jon, thanks again for an excellent read-back of what is going on. Yes, of course this kind of investment is all about trust-belief. Dr. M.'s action are saying...trust me, we have the goods.
When all this starts to become more obvious (will not be flawless IMO) AVXL patients/results/data will speak for itself. Statistical rationalization will be minimal or as required.
Thanks again for your excellent perspective and explanation.
Just to add to JJ's comment, I agree that the Illumina data seemed to make Missling much more sure. I think the Ariana data suggested certain types would respond and certain would not respond, but the Illumina genetic data really locked it down tight, they know EXACTLY who won't respond now and can screen them out of the trial.