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Replies to post #64840 on S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends
04/21/18 9:34 AM
THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Apr. 20, 2018: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 714613 and is trading up about 3.51% for the year from last year's closing of 690339. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days, while we have made a low at 712349 following the high established Wed. Apr. 18, 2018, this price action warns that we have a pause in trend. However, we have now elected a Bullish Reversal from this immediate price action and closed on the soft-side at the end of the session failing to bounce sharply from the lows. Making use of our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 727737 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 677948. This provides a 6.84% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 879041 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 648413. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 26%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come June in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so be focused. Last month produced a high at 763727 and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 690107 closing yesterday at 714613. We now need to close beneath 690107 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now.
Observing the near-term level, the market has closed up 63.9% from the last cycle low established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year rally from that event. However, from the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 522.7% from the strategic low established during 2002, which has been a 15 year rally from that key event.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish 717851. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bullish while the cyclical strength indicator is bearish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 12th at 763727, which was up 29 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 21st. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of April 2nd, which has been a move of.0722 percent.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Addressing the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 5 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 763727, which was created during the week of March 12th. The last weekly level low was 663067, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 694496 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. However, we still remain above key support 687969 on a closing basis.
Critical support still underlies this market at 648413 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 25 months. The last monthly level low was 420976, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 663067 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 763727, which was created during March, and the market has turned lower falling to 680596. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
04/28/18 9:27 AM
OUR ANALYTICAL OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Apr. 27, 2018: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 711980 and is trading up about 3.13% for the year from last year's closing of 690339. So far, we have been trading up for the past 2 days since the reaction low made on Wed. Apr. 25, 2018, but the key low was made 19 days ago on Mon. Apr. 2, 2018 at 680596. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 713750 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 699266. This provides a 2.02% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 879041 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 648413. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 26%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come June in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so be focused. Last month produced a high at 763727 during March. We need to exceed that level during April to suggest a continued advance is likely. Support technically lies now at 690107 and a breach of that level will warn of a retest of key support down at 666731 becomes possible.
Regarding the near-term level, the market has closed up 63.9% from the last cycle low established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year rally from that event. Nonetheless, turning to the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 522.7% from the strategic low established during 2002, which has been a 15 year rally from that key event.
The overall tone of this market is neutral at this time as it is balanced on all levels daily through yearly..
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of April 2nd at 680596, which was down 3 weeks from the high made back during the week of March 12th. We have seen the market drop shaply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed lower. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction.
For now, this market in an uptrend posture looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 11 weeks. The last weekly level low was 663067, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 711585 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the weekly level was 731958, which was created during the week of April 16th. However, we still remain below key resistance 742123 on a closing basis.
Critical support still underlies this market at 648413 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 25 months. The last monthly level low was 420976, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 663067 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 763727, which was created during March. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
