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Replies to post #64848 on S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends
05/05/18 9:00 AM
OUR ANALYTICAL OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. May. 4, 2018: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 720962 and is trading up about 4.43% for the year from last year's closing of 690339. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the reaction low made on Thu. May. 3, 2018, but the key low was made 24 days ago on Mon. Apr. 2, 2018 at 680596. Applying our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 727737 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 699266. This provides a 3.91% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 879041 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 648413. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 26%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
Focusing on our timing models, it is possible to see a turning point come June in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash. Remember to stay on point given this possible development ahead. Last month produced a low at 680596 and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 731958 to 680596. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
Focusing on the near-term level, the market has closed up 63.9% from the last cycle low established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year rally from that event. Concentrating on the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 522.7% from the strategic low established during 2002, which has been a 15 year rally from that key event.
The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bullish immediate tone with support at 716980. Thus far, we are still within a reactionary phase up one daily session.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 12th at 763727, which was up 29 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 21st. We have been generally trading down to sideways for the past 2 weeks, which has been a moderate move of .0448% in a stark panic type decline.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this current rally into the week of April 16th reaching 731958 has failed to exceed the previous high of 763727 made back during the week of March 12th. We have seen only a minor reaction rally from the last low for the past 24 weeks. A break of the last low will warn of a continued decline ahead. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 24 weeks overall.
Generally, this market is in an uptrend position on all our weekly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 12 weeks. The last weekly level low was 663067, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 692697 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the weekly level was 731958, which was created during the week of April 16th. However, we still remain below key resistance 742123 on a closing basis.
Critical support still underlies this market at 648413 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 26 months. The last monthly level low was 420976, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 690107 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 763727, which was created during March. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
