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04/07/18 9:11 AM
THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Apr. 6, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6206 and is trading up about 2.71% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 9 days, while we have made a low at 6181 following the high established Mon. Mar. 26, 2018, this price action warns of at least a pause in trend if not a retest of key support. Only a close above 6379 would imply a retest of the previous high. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 6255 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 5994. This provides a 4.17% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 6955 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 5070. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 27%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. Last month produced a high at 6655 and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 6655 to 5995. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
At this time, the market has closed on the Yearly level up 131.9% from the strategic low established during 2016, which has been a 1 year rally from that event.
Looking at the near-term level, the market has closed down 14% from the last cycle high established during 2017, which has been only a move from last year. Turning to the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 58.9% from the strategic high established during 2008, which has been a 9 year move.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 6386. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bearish while the cyclical strength indicator is neutral providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of February 5th at 5807, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of January 22nd. We have seen the market drop shaply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 6372. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction.
For now, this market in an uptrend posture looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 41 weeks. The last weekly level low was 4205, which formed during the week of June 19th. That is critical technical support and a breach of that low would warn of the potential shift in near-term trend. The last high on the weekly level was 6655, which was created during the week of March 26th. However, we still remain below key resistance 6328 on a closing basis.
Critical support still underlies this market at 5070 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 25 months. The last monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 5807 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 6666, which was created during January.
