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04/14/18 8:47 AM
OUR ANALYTICAL OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Apr. 13, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6739 and is trading up about 11% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. So far, we have been trading up for the past 15 days since the reaction low made on Fri. Mar. 23, 2018, but the key low was made 26 days ago on Thu. Mar. 8, 2018 at 5995. Making use of our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 7275 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 6277. This provides a 13% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 6955 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 5070. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 27%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. Last month produced a high at 6655 and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 6666 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 6883 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.
At this time, the market has closed on the Yearly level up 131.9% from the strategic low established during 2016, which has been a 1 year rally from that event.
Observing the near-term level, the market has closed down 14% from the last cycle high established during 2017, which has been only a move from last year. Now bearing in mind the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 58.9% from the strategic high established during 2008, which has been a 9 year move.
The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bullish immediate tone with support at 6586. To date, this decline has been down for fifteen daily sessions.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 9th at 6776, which was up 42 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 6776 to 6193. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of April 9th reaching 6776 has exceeded the previous high of 6666 made back during the week of January 22nd. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 18 weeks overall.
Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 42 weeks. The last weekly level low was 4205, which formed during the week of June 19th, and only a break of 6181 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the weekly level was 6776, which was created during the week of April 9th, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.
Critical support still underlies this market at 5070 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 25 months. The last monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 5807 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 6666, which was created during January, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.
