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Replies to post #1561 on Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)
04/07/18 9:10 AM
WRITTEN OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Apr. 6, 2018: NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today of 163620 so far is trading down about 4.56% for the year from last year's closing of 171450. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the reaction low made on Thu. Apr. 5, 2018. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 168960 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 160400. This provides a 5.06% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 177460 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 161400. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 9.04%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. Last month produced a low at 161000 and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 168950 to 161000. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
Regarding the near-term level, the market has closed up 25.8% from the last cycle low established during 2015, which has been only a 2 year rally from that event. Nonetheless, turning to the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 389.1% from the strategic low established during 1991, which has been a 26 year rally from that key event.
Regarding the near-term level, the market has closed down 19.2% from the last cycle high established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year decline. Now turning to the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 65.5% from the strategic high established during 2011, which has been a 6 year move.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bullish while the cyclical strength indicator is neutral providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of March 19th at 161000, which was down 8 weeks from the high made back during the week of January 22nd. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of March 19th, which has been a move of.0347 percent.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Inspecting the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 4 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 168950, which was created during the week of March 5th. The last weekly level low was 161000, which formed during the week of March 19th, and only a break of 161950 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. However, we still remain above key support 162800 on a closing basis.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 182900 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during September 2017. Critical support still underlies this market at 160500 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still holding. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. On the subject of the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 6 months. The last high on the monthly level was 182900, which was created during September 2017. The last monthly level low was 143400, which formed during July 2017, and only a break of 161300 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. However, we still remain above key support 162250 on a closing basis.
