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robertmaxwell

03/08/18 10:17 AM

#11129 RE: coldasice #11121

Thanks for the kind words. I'm glad to hear you follow along in the Twittersphere. I don't tweet much, but when I do, I do my best to keep things stimulating and informational.

Regarding the sales multiple: Your point is exceedingly well taken. The argument I was beginning to construct was that there are a considerable amount of forward earnings pulled into the current share price, thus allowing it to trade at massive premiums to any qualitative data point. That's all fine, well, and good. . . until (for the sake of this board) God forbid it isn't.

To shareholders, the most concerning potentiality to trigger the "isn't" component is, in my opinion, the dynamics of the serviced markets. I know you know this, Cold, but Cryoport shareholders don't need to be focused on diligence-ing the products nearly as much they need to be diligence-ing the addressable markets.

Right now, the sexiest use case is CAR-T. It's hotter than hell, and for very good reason. But we all know how Q4 turned out, and most importantly why it turned out that way. It doesn't look like there's any sustenance to the issues that plagued Q4 (reimbursements, blah, blah, blah), but that's what could really beat the shit out of the share price over the longterm. They're well-capitalized, so I'm not concerned about another secondary -- not at this point, at least.

Shelton made a point that I certainly under appreciated until I went back and read the script. While I don't have the exact quote, he made the point that, if he wanted to, he could machete expenses left, right, and center, and make Cryoport profitable tomorrow. He'd sacrifice most if not all of the potential future of the business, but he could do it nonetheless. That's not particularly an uncommon point made by heads of unprofitable publicly-traded companies, but it struck me here. I'll follow up on this when I have further reflections.

Ultimately, Cryoport's a takeout name. For one reason or another, everyone here seems to think or know that. This idea is generally supported rather well, but most notably due to the fact that few (if any at all) of the pharma cos have chosen to handle logistics internally; they've all favored the outsource model. I find this extremely promising.

I'm leaving out at least a few thoughts, but I'll get off my soapbox for now. Hope this helps at least someone. I remain excited for the future. Cheers, fellas.

hyperopia

03/09/18 9:08 AM

#11135 RE: coldasice #11121

Cold, I didn’t read the conversation that got deleted but I would agree that it is ridiculous to attempt to value Cryoport at this point based on some sales or revenue metric. The value is in it’s intellectual property, dominant position in the industry and clients. I think it IS impossible to duplicate and this will become more clear when they announce contracts with the next wave of 5-7 client approvals, and the moat continues to grow. There is only one way in, and Cryoport holds the keys, which is why I say it’s inevitable. . .

Yes the NOL’s (which are ~100M) would be attractive, but there may be limits for an acquiring company in the event of a buyout. (I recall getting burned on a case study competition in college) Did you happen to notice when they begin to expire? Hint: 2019. Hmmmm