Replies to post #122553 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[mrmainstreet]

All we need is 132 more events in the placebo arm than the active arm to see 15% RRR, right? Over 5 years that seems reasonable if Vascepa is truly effective.

[Bolio98]

So if RIT comes in at <15% but say 10% would AMRN have to say the study did not meet primary endpoint? Would the market care?

As a secondary question, would some/any of the SE performances be stated at that time or come in a later press release?

[sts66]

I think you're focusing far too much on mortality rates - there's much more that goes into who survives an MI and who doesn't than what drug they're taking - does the patient have co-morbid conditions, what is overall level of health, how much time passes between the event and when they get intense medical treatment, the level of skill at the ER they get taken to, what kind of equipment they have available, etc. - consider two cases of identical 65 yr old white males:

Patient 1 is a relatively well educated and financially stable man who lives in a large urbanized area with plenty of top level hospitals around, he lives with family and is surrounded by people at work, sees his cardiologist regularly - he's likely going to know when an MI is occurring, quickly seek treatment, and get the best care possible - he has an excellent chance of surviving.

Patient 2 lives out in the boonies, isn't particularly well educated or wealthy, lives alone or family isn't local, works by himself or in a small business, doesn't regularly see a cardiologist, only hospital available to him is a small rural one not staffed with the best and brightest, and the "big city" good hospital is hours away by ambulance - he stands a much smaller chance of surviving his MI than Patient 1, simply by circumstances.

Point being the standard of care in rural Mississippi is nowhere near that of say NYC - like they say, the difference between life and death can be a matter of minutes - every second counts. Your chances of survival go way up when transported by paramedics in a fully equipped ambulance vs. your wife driving you to the ER. A decent analogy is battlefield injury care from say WWII to what it is today in Iraq or Afghanistan for our soldiers - survival rates are massively different, with most of that due to how quickly they get top notch medical treatment.