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Replies to post #1465 on Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
01/21/18 9:06 AM
ANALYSIS FOR THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jan. 19, 2018: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 133310 and is trading up about 1.81% for the year from last year's closing of 130930. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the reaction low made on Thu. Jan. 18, 2018.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come April in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. Last month produced a low at 123830 and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 130980 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.
Observing the near-term level, the market has closed up 25.2% from the last cycle low established during 2015, which has been only a 2 year rally as of last year. However, from the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 417.5% from the strategic low established during 1999, which has been a 18 year rally into last year.
Observing the near-term level, the market has closed down 4.95% from the last cycle high established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year decline. Now bearing in mind the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 31.9% from the strategic high established during 2011, which has been a 6 year move.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 133210
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 15th at 134500, which was up 5 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 11th. We have been generally trading up since that low, which has been asharp move of 8.61% percent in a stark panic type advance. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of January 15th has exceeded the previous high of 130840 made back during the week of October 16th. We have seen a rally so far from the last low at 123830 made the week of December 11th, and only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune. Otherwise, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 15 weeks overall.
Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 5 weeks. The last weekly level low was 123830, which formed during the week of December 11th, and has now been broken in the recent decline. The last high on the weekly level was 134500, which was created during the week of January 15th, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 136240 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during September 2017. Critical support still underlies this market at 121420 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still holding and is trading above last month's high. Looking at a broader time horizon, this market is in an uptrend position on all our monthly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 24 months. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 136240, which was created during September 2017. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
