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Replies to post #1533 on Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)
01/14/18 10:35 AM
ANALYSIS FOR THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jan. 12, 2018: NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today of 171410 so far is trading down about 0.02% for the year from last year's closing of 171450. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the reaction low made on Thu. Jan. 11, 2018.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come February in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. Last month produced a low at 156350 and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 174950 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.
Viewing the near-term level, the market has closed up 25.8% from the last cycle low established during 2015, which has been only a 2 year rally as of last year. Flipping to the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 389.1% from the strategic low established during 1991, which has been a 26 year rally into last year.
Viewing the near-term level, the market has closed down 19.2% from the last cycle high established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year decline. Flipping to the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 65.5% from the strategic high established during 2011, which has been a 6 year move.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 169450
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of December 11th at 156350, which was down 14 weeks from the high made back during the week of September 4th. We have been generally trading down for the past week from the high of the week of January 1st, which has been a move of 2.56% percent in a stark panic type decline. Looking at this from a broader perspective, this current rally into the week of January 1st reaching 173250 has failed to exceed the previous high of 174950 made back during the week of October 16th in 2017. We have seen only a minor reaction rally from the last low for the past week. A break of the last low will warn of a continued decline ahead. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. From a wider viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past 12 weeks overall.
Overall, looking at the weekly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 4 weeks. The last weekly level low was 156350, which formed during the week of December 11th. The last high on the weekly level was 173250, which was created during the week of January 1st.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 182900 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during September 2017. Critical support still underlies this market at 160500 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still holding and is trading above last month's high. Looking at a broader time horizon, this market is in an uptrend position on all our monthly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 5 months. The last monthly level low was 143400, which formed during July 2017. The last high on the monthly level was 182900, which was created during September 2017. However, we still remain below key resistance 177450 on a closing basis.
