I definitely understand where you are coming from. The volume has come out of nowhere. Today is the second highest volume day this year and yesterday was the fourth by only 14,000 shares.
The highest day was July 24th with 756,563 with the median price being about $3.40 which is where it ended up closing on the day. That would give a dollar volume of ~$2.5 million. That was enough volume to be the institutional holders dumping shares they already owned but did not come from the conversion and subsequent dumping of any warrants. At the time only the A & A-1 warrants were within exercise price and I believe they were blocked from exercise. We will be able to asses the holdings when the new 13Gs come out which I believe will be in the first couple of months next year. I'm not 100% on the time frame, or even if there is one, but this is when I believe they came out this year. Other than that day the volume rarely even touched 100K shares.
Yesterday's & today's volume was a bit more tame at 215,938 & 377,236 (currently) which equates to about $755K & $1.5 million respectively. Difference being that now we are at a higher price and only moving up. If it is the institutions dumping shares, and I don't think it is, they are being bought up pretty damn quick.
I'm going to give a very boring explanation because I tend to believe that things are simpler than they seem. This is just my opinion on the volume & price increase.
I have to start with the fact that our float is ridiculously small which allows for larger price swings in either direction. Even though there is no news right now the volume increase allowed the price to rise at a quicker rate. I know I have said this before but I stand by it that the float is & will be the main reason we move higher (or lower) on any increased volume until news confirms. At which point the float will only help the rise (or fall) in SP be extremely epic. I believe this mostly explains the 30%+ rise over the past two days. Next, for the fundamentally focused folks out there, we have multiple catalysts expected early next year which could potentially provide larger price appreciation but the dates aren't set so best get in while you can. Last, for the technically focused folks, from the beginning of December we have eclipsed the 20, 50, 100, & 200 day simple moving averages on the daily 1 year chart. Technically speaking these should provide some support moving forward so long as we can maintain consistent volume.
Pretty boring, I know, but to me it provides the simplest and most probable explanation into the past two days of price action. We will be able to infer more as the days go on and we can see more of the trading activity. I definitely expect a pullback from these prices but would love it to hold the $4-$5 range until news hits. 200 day SMA sits at about $3.50 on the daily 1 year chart so if we do drop from these levels I expect it would be to there. News trumps all though so until that comes I'm content with just sitting tight & trying not to look too far into things relating to the day to day price movements.
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