I am also puzzled however about the whole FDA new protocols and the process changes we heard so much of recently. Now what? Will RWE practices be considered and will they impact evidence trail/PR/News? The old trial (view the world through the FDA straw) go away or will we still be captive to the same processes that got us nowhere for past 10 yrs+?
So, I agree w/your scenario and % estimates but think the context of trials will be very much changed.
anders...good common sense post---agree for the most part (with some very minor discrepancies)--I would be happy with a $50SP at the end of next summer (very possible-do-able)--I believe in the science and will not sell unless some thing dramatically changes