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Replies to post #71146 on Abet Chichi2 (Chichi2)
12/02/17 9:19 AM
As of the close of Fri. Dec. 1, 2017: At this time, the market is encountering resistance so caution is wisely taken. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 265064, 264224 264512, . Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 260554. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come this month in S&P 500 Cash Index so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 265774 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 265774 to 255745. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 264222 and is trading up about 18% for the year from last year's closing of 223883. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past day, following the high established Thu. Nov. 30, 2017.
The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bullish immediate tone with support at 260641
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 27th at 265774, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 21st. We have been generally trading up since that low, which has been a move of 3.92% percent in a stark panic type advance. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of November 27th has exceeded the previous high of 259702 made back during the week of November 6th. We have seen a rally so far from the last low at 241735 made the week of August 21st, and only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune. Otherwise, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 12 weeks overall. Interestingly, the S&P 500 Cash Index has been in a bullish phase for the past 17 months since the low established back in June 2016.
Critical support still underlies this market at 240760 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.
Diagnostically, my wide-ranging study recognizes that the current directional movement since the low made back in February 2016 has been a long-term Bullish trend in S&P 500 Cash Index. This trend remain in motion as long as we hold above 207400 on a monthly closing basis. It is incredibly important to identify the broader trend for that is the underlying tone. It is wise to take position counter-trend only with this understanding of what you are doing.
Consequently, this has been a 1 year rally in motion since 2016. Caution is advisable since this is also 8 years up from the low of given that was the major low 2009. We must pay attention to the closing for this year. If we close lower at year end, beneath 223883, then we can see a pause in the uptrend into next year. Penetrating intraday last year's low of 181010 will confirm a serious correction into next year. However, we have rallied to exceed last year's high last month. We need to see a closing above 227753 at year-end to see a continued rally is possible into next year. Exceeding this year's high next year and holding last year's low intraday will signal the bullish trend is still intact. A breach of last year's low of 181010 intraday will negate that outcome.
Aiming on the longer term yearly level, we see turning points where highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis should form will be, 2019, 2023 and 2026. There is a likelihood of a decline moving into 2019 with the opposite trend thereafter into 2023. This pattern becomes a possibility if last year's low of 181010 is penetrated even intraday. The most critical model, the Directional Change Model targets are during 2023 and during 2024. This model often picks the high or low, but can also elect a breakout to a new higher trading zone or a breakdown to a new lower trading level. Inspecting the volatility models suggest we should see a rise in price movement during January 2025. We look to the turning points to ascertain the direction. Volatility targets reflect only volatility.
Inspecting the immediate momentum is Bullish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of November 20th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 227753. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, last month was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 56 weeks. The last weekly level low was 208379, which formed during the week of October 31st. The last high on the weekly level was 265774, which was created during the week of November 27th. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 21 months. The last monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016. The last high on the monthly level was 265774, which was created during November.
