Being as I'm on the phone and not at the computer, I'll respond in the morning as there's a lot at stake for you and I want to tackle all pertinent points.
One point I dare not ignore, though:
We don't know how DK will recognize ALDW units upon conversion in terms of tax liability. It'd be great if it were as simple as a near 2:1 @.49. But we have no way of knowing there'll be a step up.
Many of us have elected to liquidate half of our previously held ALDW holdings as this limits our tax exposure to 50%. But that may not be how it works. As of this time we can't know. DK may announce that our units of ALDW are to be credited with a value LESS consideration of gains accrued priorly. This would effectively screw those expecting a step up and for this reason I sold half my units.
Half of something is worth more than all of nothing.
Continuing on this path... my sense all week has been that DK would soon be rising, a result of the really fine quarterly report. I immediately started buying and announced so on the board. Over the first three days of this week I built a 2100 share position.
The give-away was the report itself which I studied, knowing my responses would be guiding me as the big swallow is in processing mode and I had to move on things to protect my interests. It was clear there'd soon be analyst upgrades.
It was Tuesday, I believe, when the flurry of analyst announcements landed and I topped off the tank immediately. Later that day Wells Fargo came out with their +47% projection amounting to a $40 share. At that point I felt I had to push people hard or the opportunity would fizzle. So I campaigned and prodded.
My 2100 shares are nearly $2,000 ahead already. Before WF spoke of $40 I'd come up with my own $38-$39 based on studying the quarterly, looking at the prior several years of earnings and capex and especially the fact that the company had been able to execute fairly well despite difficult times in the energy sector.
Adding it all up I figured that while I may be exposing myself to a lot of taxation by selling half of ALDW, that gives me the cash to redeploy in DK. Further, I get to buy DK now on the cheap. When the swallow happens, DK may be several dollars higher in valuation and that might trigger a different accounting procedure affecting the 0.49 basis.
NOT buying into DK now is a mistake in my eyes as I see a rising valuation ahead. Holding ALDW may seem very profitable but January brings a new tax year and I wouldn't want to be in the revolving doors come the first of the year.
A lot of people don't know about DK but this will surely change. Brokerages will promote it as they want their clients to make money and this pick is going to do that.
Waiting to learn the final terms of the swallow and doing nothing is like not living until we know how we will die. This is the ideal time to act! Waiting could quickly add $5 to the cost of a share whereas acting now eliminates concern. At the worst, you'll end up with shares you hadn't considered, shares probably containing unexpected gains while in the womb awaiting the big swallow.
I hope this helps you, please let me know.
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