I have spent many years trading and like you have come up with theories based on experience and past results. It is possible that your hypothesis and others I have read here are true. I also believe this company has a good chance of becoming listed and considered credible.
The problem is the release of shares. I have a lot of trading ideas for many stocks and I would love to follow the companies every move to use that in my decision making. However, I find that T/A tells you everything you need to know.
Staying disciplined to my T/A rules is the hard part. The massive move to $5.25 Friday was unexpected. I should have taken some time out of my work day to check the chart more thoroughly and I would have easily noticed that it was trading well above the top channel. With that I would have unloaded the majority of my position and trailed the remaining "lotto shares" (As I like to call them.).
At this point I haven't made a move and I know for a fact now it is in a downtrend. I don't have much invested in this trade but either way I am down and will have to decide what I want to do next.
The stock needs some positive news to get some buyers interested again. Otherwise I fear we are headed much lower.
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