I look at the price action this way...
It is not about seeing what one day does, its more about the patterns shown by watching several days, and days that evolve into weeks. Its about measuring the distance from low to peak, and doing the math to see what the next targets might be. its a continuous measuring of price movements,in both directions, as price climbs or falls to mathematic targets. I might anticipate that AVXL price would rally tomorrow to reach the 4.30/4.35 target, but when it does, I also anticipate a retrace from there, to see how far back down it falls next time. One day wont complete the picture as it develops. The math targets in play as I showed on the chart, has a very important zone ,like a battle zone between the selling force and the buying force, the support versus the resistance. its a zig zag ping pong zone from 4.00-4.50 area, and in the middle of this is the 20ma/50ma around 4.30, and on the weekly chart a key ma around 4.40, the whole zone is a well crafted capping zone of resistance,designed to keep the price locked down,stuck in a small box close to 4 dollars. or even below 4 dollars,is possible to get hit again. A rally bounce that continues this week, in my view, would need to reach 4.50 at least, to represent a moderate show of buying strength. and any weaker bounce, one that stays stuck below 4.50,and fails around 4.35/4.40/4.30 has a more bearish downward looking energy in my view.
So to make sense of just this much data, I might say,it takes a whole vision of the picture to understand what the meaning of the whole playing field is, in mathematical terms, like translating the math into a wave pattern language that yields meaning. So that you can answer the kind of question.... what does it mean if price bounces to 4.30 versus , what does it mean if price bounces stronger to 4.55.Is there any difference in the quality of the different bounces, more than just 20 cents, is there more meaning to the whole picture.I think there is and I've learned to understand the distinctions.
In the current picture, I don't care so much if the price action stays flat tomorrow,,or the next day, but at some point it has to make a measurable move in one or both directions. and when it does, it will mean something in relation to....the whole picture.
The last 2 rally waves and pullback waves have demonstrated that AVXL has been engineered up to a Capping peak (5.15 area) and manipulated down to a bottom zone (3.80/3.85 area) so far. and looking at the big picture, going back even to the 60 cent Bottom , but especially going to the 2.43/2.76 Bottoms, the Elliott Wave pattern in play has shown a Bottom at 2.43 began the Wave 1 that peaked at 6.64/6.49/6.30/6.27,
call that Wave 1.
Then we saw the Wave 2 correction that fell from 6.27 to the 3.33 low. Since that 3.33 low we see the next rally wave get Capped at 5.14 and retrace down to 3.80, then it rallies again to 5.15 ,gets Capped again, and now sent back down to 3.86 (so far...) Back when the correction that stopped at 3.33 reversed there, that was the finish of the "Wave 2" since that pivot low, the price action has been trying to create the next rally wave and that upwave would be counted as an Elliott Wave 3. It should be a big rally wave that targets 8 dollars to be called a finished target zone. Even a suppressed Wave 3 rally should at least target the 6.00-6.75 area. Its the rally we have been waiting for , generated by news , that just hasn't gotten any traction yet. BUT the rally pattern is ready and waiting to blast off. and because this is what the chart picture is showing, as well as the science news, waiting.... to me it means I want to be patient about the price action, as it wallows suppressed around the 4 dollar zone,its a bargain shopping time to buy shares below 4.50,even below 4 dollars. That's the main play right now for AVXL in my view, a time to buy shares in a bargain zone from 4.20-3.50.
But because the big rally wave is waiting to take off, I don't really want to sell any shares at the resistance targets (4.50/4.80/5.00/5.20, etc.... I might start taking some profit on some trading shares around 6 dollars maybe, but what I really want, is to see big news generate the next big rally. I understand it better now, as the chart picture is lined up with the science fundamentals .
So having said all this, in a bigger perspective, along with the latest analysis I presented this weekend.... how would you reframe the original question....what will price do tomorrow?
To me , the correct answer is to anticipate a bounce to continue above the capping 4.20 that happened Friday. 4.20 is a low resistance point, it means we could see a plunge down to 4 dollars as easily as a bounce to 4.30. I just want to see the next movement, I don't care whether it goes up or down. IF it plunges down to 4 dollars I already own enough bought at 4 dollars, so I wont buy more at 4. but if in the next few days it retests the 3.85/3.80 I will buy a little more, and probably some more at the 3.70 step and 3.50 area,if it falls to that target.
Conversely, if we get a bounce this week that climbs to 4.50/4.60 then I will just watch and see how high it goes this time before it gets hammered back down. and then how far down does it fall before it finds support, every movement tells me something meaningful because I study the whole picture,and also examine the charts on many different time frames.
I don't do any other examination, not of the science or the financials, I rely on folks like yourself who do good forensic work. I like the work youre doing on the science and the financial aspects. .and I try to pay attention to your insights.
Right now, as we seem to be in some kind of "news cycle" with conferences, and presentations, etc.... trials about to begin,maybe.... and we see how ,so far.... the various bits of news and press releases, have not generated any real rallies....I am wondering what kind of "NEWS" does AVXL need to see happening,in order for the next Big rally to get going. and become real. ? because so far, what has passes for "news" has done nothing to stop the price capping and bleeding manipulation games of the MM 's.
Which is ok for those wanting to buy at bargain prices.... but it also makes it more complicated trying to determine how far down the price can be 'bled' ,like last time down to 3.33, could they do that again? It gets nervous ,a bit nailbiting, to not have sharp enough clues, as to how far down the next plunges can be taken. The last month has seen big plunges,that shattered the rally bounces. this game could go on for the rest of the year unless we get really good news. and that's why I want to be careful and patient deciding what dips to buy next.
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