Replies to post #394 on Blue Dolphin Energy Company (BDCO)

[jmjjw]

One useful building block is the Nelson Complexity Index.

Nelson Complexity is a means of assessing the cost and complexity of a refining operation, and assessing its value, and the potential value/margin of the refined products stream it can generate.

The complexity basis is the crude unit (aka atmospheric distillation unit, or topping unit), with a complexity factor of 1.0.

Additional capabilities like a vacuum unit, thermal units, etc., have higher complexity factors, which are additive - the higher the Nelson Index, the more complex and capable in general the refinery will be, and the higher its product stream value will be.

It is not a perfect measure for valuing a refinery, but it is a good start - it also factors in complexity as a measure of complexity/barrel, which is useful in comparing across different refinery operations.

An operation like BDOC's Nixon unit has a complexity index very near, if not 1.0 - it is likely possible to do a rough analysis of the Nixon unit from permit and other public documents to get a more accurate index. That value, combined with the known 15k bbl throughput would be a reasonable metric for BDCO's chances to do something like sell the operation at a profit.