Replies to post #4718 on 123Tom's TA study group

[Citrati]

Every situation is different. My opinion for AVXL follows.
Since price is in a downtrend the likelihood of the gap closing is increasing.
If $4 level does not hold then odds really go up.
For me, I would assess how much powder I wish to accumulate shares with.
The next target steps go, 3.90, 3.80, 3.71 and 3.63. Watch the volume, rsi and adx to get an idea of previous oversold bounces. Scale in at desired levels. A bid sitting just above the gap would be able to get filled on a flash move like in mid/end July as trying to do it during the flash is often missed because there are too many bidders in line ahead and price accelerates up faster than you can enter bids.
Also watch the lower bband and yesterdays candle. closing price below candle body increases odds $4 breaks and closing below the tail increases odds more. Mid bb and 50day are current resistance.
Hope that is helpful.

Best wishes. I agree these are great prices down here.

[123tom]

It was a target until today.

Funny you asked. I was just studying the chart all night, finally seeing that if this downward pressure breaks below 4 dollars now, then that 3.60 target does come into play on the radar. That was going to be my forecast ....until today happened. Today has the potential to be pattern changing. But its now a work in progress, the blast up today, followed immediately by a retrace to hold at 4.22...the 50ma at 4.25 area is the key line of support now. I analyzed todays movement in the AVXL forum, if you want to read it .

What I'm watching more closely now is to see any continued follow thru climbing tomorrow and next week, that targets the 200ma area (4.80-5.05) Today stopped at 4.75. Its a target zone for resistance overhead, the whole area from 4.40 to 5 dollars is all resistance. today stopped at 4.75. The central zone is 4.50 for the moment, in my view. to overcome 4.50. all the small steps along the way that would try to climb up to target 5 dollars, any one of them could get hit back down. the key 50ma at 4.25 should remain the critical support line now. Price needs to stay above 4.20 now. Any more falling.bleeding down below 4.20 would tell me the bleeding game hasn't changed with today's blast.

But Holding at the 50ma and following thru tomorrow and next week, to reach targets around 5 dollars would be the next bounce to watch for. the battle will be important to watch what happens at the 200ma (5.05) .as I described in the analysis today.

It might likely take a few days of watching any struggle around and below the 200ma, and to see the strength of the resistance there, to get a clue whether the stifling bleeding down game would still be the dominant,ongoing game ...but IF we see a stronger rally force break through the 200ma and target the area (5.30-5.50-5.75) then I would start to call that a pattern changing rally. and such a rally would become confirmed IF its pullback Holds at the 200ma around 5 dollars, and makes 5 dollars become the new base of support, for higher waves to the targets at 6/7 and 8 dollars..

[123tom]

F1...whats your view of AVXL these days?

anything looking interesting in the financial area of things? and the science? This week was good follow thru for the price action in the rally. so far, so good. the obvious resistance at the 200ma waits overhead now. But it does look like it was capped below 5 to expire the options. Do you believe wall street tricks get played like that?

Maybe the way is paved now to start testing the 200ma, and testing the new support steps below, at 4.70/4.60/4.50/4.40, and the 5 cent half steps in between.
4.45 was a big one. I think those support targets are still in play that have to hold as support now.
But I wonder if we will see more MM manipulation at 5 dollars to bleed it down again. a rinse and repeat operation. so I don't want to give too much power to the 4.45 zone to act as strong support ,just yet. I want to see what the MM's do with price action bleeding and slamming it down from the 5 area. Like they did at 4.75 last week, took it right away ,down to 4.20 and it struggled for a week. That game could happen again if its controlled by the big money trading.