Replies to post #36796 on Ayala Pharmaceuticals Inc (ADXS)

[gold007_2000]

If sold today, $50.00 is a fair price.

[ignatiusrielly35]

Good job, mpre. You are on the right track. For example, they reached a valuation on KITE by projecting $1.2b in revenue, meaning they valued the company on a price to sales ratio of approximately 10:1. So when people say ADXS may not be worth at least $10b someday they are wrong.

[fraud fighter]

Step one prove the drugs work
Step two get approval
Then think about the math

[Mkc12five]

Adage will set our buyout price and you can bet your boots it will be north of the 20.00 bs that's been floating around here. Partner for EU alone could get us back above 20.

[trading_cyclist]

Thanks for this.

When you do the math, it would be great to see:

a) total disease burden (no. cases)
b) total # of people on treatment (rarely 100% of those with disease)
c) total market; #people on treatment X cost of treatment
d) Advaxis market share (assuming it's not the only treatment available).
3) Make some assumptions about price variability (as well as market share) and see what kind of range you get.


That gets you to total revenue. Now you need to consider a few assumptions about the price/revenue ratios. If I remember right, it's about 3:1 for biotech (will double check, found this earlier and posted same for AUPH).


Here's the link to my google sheet that does this for AUPH.

Whtat's complicated for Advaxis is all the damned franchises (!). You really have to go through this exercise for each franchise.


All the best,

TC