Replies to post #36802 on Ayala Pharmaceuticals Inc (ADXS)

[mpreorder]

Perhaps ff..But some here are speculating that the sale of the company will be before PIII completes. If that happens, do you want to be in a position of knowing if the offer is a good deal or not?

[mypekeispooped]

Unless you think that having the best results ever in cervical cancer (GOG) and doubling the OS in canine osteosarcoma is sheer chance, then the drugs work.

[trading_cyclist]

Not exactly. You can think of this as an "expected value" problem, where you multiple the "probability of an event" (the likelihood of the drug getting approved) X the value of the event (Sales revenue).

Soooo, if you think there's a 50% chance of the drug getting approved, and the revenue IF the drug is approved is $revenues will be 1 billion, then today's "expected value" for insert-text-hereis...

=(0.5) X (1,000,000,000)
=500,000,000


And then...if you assume a price/sales ratio (per previous link), then the total sales price is...

=6.0 X 500,000,000
=3,000,000,000

And if there are 49m (fully diluted) then, today's share price would be

=$3,000,000,000 / 49,000,000
=61

Someone check my numbers, but I think that's right (if you really believe that the projected revenue is 1B and the probability of (one) of the drugs getting approved is 50%.


TC

PS We'd really need to project out total possible revenue for each franchise (on an annual basis); the probability of that revenue stream reaching the market; and then sum this up for each franchise.
Note: In "possible revenue" I'm assuming that's what you get after working out

a) prevalence of disease
b) number of people on treatment
c) % of people on treatment that are treated with Advaxis drug, i.e. their "market share" for this particular treatment.

Cheers,

TC

[Mazo1]

Absolutely correct on that account.

[raja48185]

Agree 200% with the ORDERED logic.

People are throwing numbers and it is typical weekend fun.