Replies to post #241906 on SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[imiloa]

Watcher, Risk,
limited posts, so answering all replies together:

re: path to "normalcy"

i suspect none exists without the markets taking a big hit.
markets are reliant on new free QE money for corp stock buybacks.
and a fed bond unwind goes in the opposite direction.

maybe the long term plan is just to devalue the USD to peanuts
until all that legacy debt costs as much as a cup of coffee?


re: don't have any real plan to let them go

that seems certain to me.
it was a shell game, hoping for a miracle economic boon,
into which they could gradually unwind the debt into strength.

instead, they fed the bubble until it's ready to pop...


re: credit is no way to live / don’t have enough squirreled away

agreed in full.
when the hammer does fall this round,
i wouldn't be surprised if the debt crisis leads to widespread poverty reminiscent of the 1930s.


re: wouldn’t be too giddy expecting more QE or other easy money fed tricks

what else can they do?
lower rates again?

i suspect they just need the appropriate emergency to be "forced" to start another round of QE.
north korea might supply that alibi.

fwiw, i fully agree with your logic.
just noting that the fed has inflated the balloon to the brink of popping.
so their only option without pissing of daddy trump
is to upgrade to a larger balloon...