Replies to post #114721 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[HDGabor]

K-

I know that you do not have a report ... but you are using it as a basis ...

(More likely) the reason behind +0.01 vs -0.11 EPS:

- SunT (historically) built-in a minor dilution for the future ... more likely they used 271.8M for 2018
- the 0.12 EPS decrease is equal with $32.6M additional "Loss"

report came out around the time of Kennedy's sale

No ... the report came out after Q2 CC ...

there are differences between expenses and cash flow as they related to pending tail payments ... For those who are modeling our financials, beyond 2017 we want to highlight that under the Kowa agreement, there are differences between expenses and cash flow as they related to pending tail payments. Assuming Kowa continues to effectively co-promote Vascepa for at least the balance of 2017 and 2018 as planned, Kowa is entitled to a tail payment based off a levels co-promotion fee they earn in 2018.
We anticipate recording such tail payments as part of SG&A expense under U.S. GAAP in 2018 despite the payment becoming due from a care perspective and installments over three years beginning in 2019. This anticipate a 2018 accrual of non-cash expense of the tail payments is not part of our 2017 expense levels.
This tail payment provisions is not new, we draw more attention to it now because we are getting closer to 2018 and we wanted to highlight this upcoming difference between expense accrual and later cash payment under the agreement.

We do not know the exact % of the tail payment, but KOWA fee for 2018 will be $40M (assuming 200M Net revenue, 80% Gross Margin and 20% as fee) ... the difference ($0.12 EPS) could be (more likey) an accounting difference only ... cash-flow remain the same as in previous analysis / forecast.

Best,
G

ps.:

Poster Sam might be able to access the full report

We do not have the report, since Sam could not get it (these) anymore ... as he posted months ago ...