Replies to post #121362 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[NWDR]

http://phrma-docs.phrma.org/sites/default/files/pdf/biopharmaceutical-industry-sponsored-clinical-trials-impact-on-state-economies.pdf

According to this study in 2013 the average cost of a PH3 CNS trial was $36,000 per patient, page7. To be conservative I'll estimate the current cost (2017) at $50,000 per patient for a CNS trial.

So now just pick the number of patients.

100 seems like the absolute minimum, 100 * $50K = $5e10^6
300 seems more likely, 300 * $50K = $15e10^6
1000 maybe, 1000 * $50K = $5e10^7

so between $5M to $50M for PH3 CNS trial. Huge range. The only take away I really get from this is that the cost is not $100s of millions of dollars. So a deal with BP with an upfront payment of $100-300M would cover the cost of the clinical trials for AZ, Rett and PD.

Cheers.

ps. Just for comparison Biogen is running 3 PH3 trials with their AZ drug candidate. Each trial will enroll about 1350 patients. But as has been noted before the smaller the effect the larger the sample size needed to proved statistical significance.