Replies to post #1213 on Vascular Biogenics Ltd (VBLT)

[Oren1976]

189 events and 75% of patients get treatment 12 month can happen in November . U assume it happen in January but it's an assumption. If u listen to CEO not long ago he spoke about top line end of year or just at the beginning of next year. CEO also assume 60-90 days to calculate the stats and still says q1 18 knowing that even if cutoff was Nov 17 the pr will come only Jan or Feb 18

[staccani]

I think we have already reached the primary endpoint. Below my reasoning.

Assuming BEV behaves as in historical data (and BEV historical rates are quite solid with more than 600 patients and also let us not forget that this trial enrolled patients also with big tumors so we should not see an improvement vs historical in BEV cohort) depending on when the 189th event is reached , we should have the following estimated survival rates in the two arms, at the cut off:

1) September ca 20% BEV vs 30% VB111
2) October ca 18% BEV vs 32% VB111
3) November ca 16% BEV vs 34% VB111
4) December ca 15% BEV vs 35% VB111
5) January ca 12% BEV vs 38% VB111

This means that since not announced yet, we should have met already the primary endpoint of significant survival improvement vs BEV arm

[mantoo123]

@staccani Do you have a reference for these numbers mentioned in your post #1213 (reproduced below)? I was unable to find these numbers with google. I thank you in advance.



Let me put it more simply. We know that:
1) ca 50 patients were enrolled before June 2016
2) ca 75 more patients were enrolled between June and Aug 206
3) ca 125 patients were enrolled between Sept and Nov 2016
4) ca 2 patients were enrolled in Dec 2016