Vascular Biogenics Ltd (VBLT)

[staccani]

Refined estimated OS estimate:

Let me put it more simply. We know that:
1) ca 50 patients were enrolled before June 2016
2) ca 75 more patients were enrolled between June and Aug 206
3) ca 125 patients were enrolled between Sept and Nov 2016
4) ca 2 patients were enrolled in Dec 2016

Company is expecting final results in Q1 2018, let us say the 189 are reached in Jan 2018.

1) the first 50 patients would have 24 on average until Jan 2018
2) the 75 patients , 21 months on avg until Jan 2018
3) the 125 patients , 15 months until Jan 2018
4) the last 2 patients 13 months until Jan 2018

The weighted avg trial duration is 18,75 months. This means that if all the patients were alive, they would have been on trial for an avg of 18,55 months or ca 87 weeks
If we look at the survival curves in slide 22 of June 2017 company presentation we will see the avg survival between the vb111 curve in ph2 ansd the historical curve in BEV at week 87 is probably around 15%.
Whereas the ph3 trial will be stopped at 25% survival. That is why I believe VB111 is doing better than ph2 (possibly due to BEV addition for the whole trial), assuming that BEV cohort is behaving like in historical trials