Continuation of the study only means one thing- results were not overwhelmingly positive to induce stoppage.
Remaining possibilities:
1.) Results are + in general population of statin treated patients at least to 15 % reduction of events etc etc most favorable scenario - stock price surges
biggest concern for this scenario which I posted was OTC substitution - AMRN astutely recognized the issue .. (despite the overwhelming outcry from this board that it was NOT an issue) and moved to eclipse it
2.) Results are showing benefits only in specific subgroups ( What I believe will be the result) so individuals with say DM2, high trigs low hdl have benefit - stock price will have initial surge on announcement until realization of the limited market - and the fact that many diabetic meds are already showing this benefit - stock price will then reduce ( no pun intended this time)
3.) There are no + results - continue the study as long as possible in the hopes of continuing rx growth - yet since most new RX's are for trigs 200- 500 in hopes of reducing CAD IF study negative rx numbers will collapse no matter how large the pre-REDUCE-IT growth.
Long term Stock price only increases with + REDUCE IT results for general population coupled with successful blockage of OTC substitution.
The real tragedy here is failure in study design. AMRN should have had included statin intolerant group. If the med is marginal its likelihood of success woudl be much greater in this group than in statin treated patients where the vast majority of risk has already been removed. Success in this group would have immediately resulted in transference to MD thinking that EPA reduces CAD in the general population - RX numbers sore as the med knocks on the door of statin numbers
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