Replies to post #132697 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Evaluate]

Alphapuppy: since you have years of experience in clinical research, and since you have done substantial review of the phase 3 trial, what are some of your thoughts about:
1. At ASCO in early June there were 231 OS events, which is just 2 events shy off 233 event OS minimum threshold. NWBO predicted that these remaining 2 events would occur in about 1 month ... by mid July.
What do you think, statistically and per your modeling etc, that the odds are that the 233 event threshold has not yet been crossed?
How many OS events do you think have occurred so far .... 237?
Is there a benefit for NWBO allowing the trial to continue well beyond the 233 events?
Do you think NWBO may have implemented a data-lock, and just not reported it yet?

2. Based on your modeling of the blinded phase 3 .... how do you think the results from the information arm confirm or strengthen your charts & predictions?

3. Based on your most current modeling, what is your prediction regarding Primary Endpoint results .... number of months for treatment arm versus control arm?
Same for Secondary Endpoint OS number of months for each cohort?

[GoodGuyBill]

AlphaPuppy,

Please understand...I believe you, Larry and Bohsie to be very intelligent, capable and knowledgeable individuals. I have been encouraged by your work. All of you may have enough experience to be highly credible members of NWBO's advisory board. Your personal intelligence, experience, knowledge and professional credibility is not THE issue, per se.

NWBO has been working on the direct & L trials for approx 10 years. The science appears to be promising and very close to proving its efficacy. But, having to constantly engage in a brutal fight with hedge funds & other short-naysayers the likes of AF (including NW), NWBO no longer has the finances to continue beyond 2 to 6 months. Furthermore, NWBO has little to no stock shares available to raise additional capital.

Given NWBO's dire predicament, it is inexcusable imho for NWBO to pay to give a presentation to highly esteemed professional and academic peers and use a seeking-alpha poster (Bohsie) and "an independent analyst" Larry Smith. These guys are great guys and their analysis regarding the trial may be correct. But, do you think big investors with deep pockets (like NW, for example) will be be impressed with Bohsie, Larry Smith? Do you think oncologists not up to speed with NWBO will be even marginally impressed by their quotes. In 10 years working with scientists, on and eternal to its Advisory board, NWBO could not find one Robert Mueller type of oncologist/statistician to say these things? Could they not get someone more academically/professionally credible (to potential NWBO's investors)? Does this say something about the NWBO's own confidence of their trial? Is this a legitimate sign of a crack in the trials efficacy armor?

Someone should call Les and pose the question: WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!

However I do have a number of years of experience doing this sort of clinical research. And have first authored my own peer reviewed works. And as I have the disclosed previously in this situation I have actual skin in the game.