Replies to post #213388 on Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

So the BBG numbers (which have been much better for HCV scripts in the past than IMS) for Mavyret are 19, 93 and 180 for the first three weeks. The TRx for Vos for the first 5 weeks are 20, 54, 54, 87, and 131. My guesstimate is that Mav will do 4-10 times better than Vos in NRx and 3-7 better in TRx. Still a hugely broad range for a guesstimate and does not count public markets.

The overall HCV commercial market in the US continues to decline - now under 7500 TRx on weekly basis - last year at this time it was ~9500 and '15 had over 11,000.

[DewDiligence]

Mavyret scripts for week ending 9/8/17 (from IMS)…

TRx: 185, +29% from prior week
NRx: 156, +14% from prior week

The market seems to like these numbers.

Note: Mavyret’s absolute script figures reported by IMS are low because IMS misses much of the public sector of the HCV market that ABBV is targeting.