Replies to post #213402 on Biotech Values

[willyw]

Thank you for posting the data. I've been reading your posts for quite a while and find them helpful.

I'm starting to see prescriptions for G/P on HCV bulletin boards.

My 2 cents on this subject.

I thought Zepatier made very good headway upon approval, and I think Maryvet will do the same, in spades. We may already be seeing this.
Zep was primarily in G-1 and I would think Maryvet could oust it from it's position.

Epclusa has done very very well, but it is a pan-genotypic (and primarily) 12 week program. Maryvet is also pangenotypic and should be cheaper and a shorter treatment for most. Exact same niche. I think Maryvet is competing more against Harvoni and Epclusa than Vosevi. Many investors and people on HCV boards are largely unaware of this new regimen; probably doctors as well.

Pricing could take some decision making from the doctors, who might otherwise be loyal to Gilead. I think real world results in 8 weeks could turn the tide. It could be like Zepatier, but pan-genotypic, with the lowest of side effects and the shortest of treatments. In a few weeks Maryvet seems to be outdoing Viekira in the USA. I have held the notion that some warehousing was occurring waiting for this new program.

Abbvies performance in the USA HCV market share has not been good. Viekira's saving grace was the EX-USA market. There were a large amount of genotype 1b's in the EU and Japan and Viekira has a nearly 100% cure rate for 1b, and without riba; even very very high in cirhotics. I would think acceptance would be high for Marivet in the EU and Japan (when it is approved)

Worth mentioning, ENTA will be getting royalties from both 1st and 2nd gen programs for a while before the G/P program phases out the 1st gen.

There should be some groups that qualify; like past treatment failures, and renal/kidney issue patients. Approval for HIV co-infection should arrive sometime; unsure of that timetable. (Very small sampling showed 100% cure rate for both 8 and 12 weeks for G/P.- Coinfection is nearly no longer a factor in curing patients; G/P was pretty clean in drug interactions/ w/ HIV drugs. I assume it will be approved)


Thanks again for your sharing data and your thoughts.