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09/02/17 10:21 AM
As of the close of Thu. Aug. 31, 2017: The market is in a neutral position for right now. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 4749 and 4725. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 4560 and 4597. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come this month in NY Crude Oil Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 5043 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 5043 to 4558. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
NY Crude Oil Futures closing today of 4723 so far is trading down about 12% for the year from last year's closing of 5372. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 3 days. On a broader perspective, this market has been trading down overall for the past 8 days, since the high established Mon. Aug. 21, 2017 following the high established Mon. Aug. 28, 2017.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is bearish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is neutral while the cyclical strength indicator is bearish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 31st at 5043, which was up 6 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. We have seen the market rally for the past week from the low of the week of August 28th, which has been a move of 5.43% percent. Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of January for 5 months. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 2 months.
Critical support still underlies this market at 4357 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.
My analytical long-term analysis recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Crude Oil Futures reflects only a temporary reaction within a broader bull market trend since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Crude Oil Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 5451 and 2605. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2016 which was a 8 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2016, this market has bounced so far this year, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 5451 to 2605. There remains a long-term risk of a decline extending into 2018 in real terms adjusted for inflation. Only if new lows unfold beyond that target in time is it possible to extend the decline as far out as 2021.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 3210 on an annual closing basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 14727 major high established back in 2008.
Looking at the immediate momentum is Neutral on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of August 21st's low. Some caution is warranted given the fact that last month closed lower. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 5451. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, the last week of 8/28 was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend. At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Looking at the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 4 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 5043, which was created during the week of July 31st. The last weekly level low was 4205, which formed during the week of June 19th. However, we still remain above key support 4365 on a closing basis. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Focusing on the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 7 months. The last high on the monthly level was 5524, which was created during January. The last monthly level low was 4205, which formed during June. However, we still remain above key support 4663 on a closing basis.
