I saw you got rid of the pharma pick of yours. Good move as it would have to backpedal 25% or greater just to get back to a month ago. I'm happy you did it.
NGL:
I placed an order this morning for 200 NGL at $8.50. I have an earlier placed order for 115 units at $8.90. My goal is that of amassing 18,000 units of NGL and currently have 17,585. Thursday's windfall is earmarked for NGL accumulation but I'm convinced units will be dropping from here. We've got a couple of big fat months to go before this quarter's NGL guidance comes forth and many investors get skittish and sell prematurely or foolishly or both; or they find other more immediate opportunities and can't resist. I'm waiting like a hyena to latch onto the kill others don't understand.
So for now folks are playing NGL at above $9 but I think the effort will break down, yielding something closer to $9 and below. I've got to preserve cash in order to take advantage of opportunity yet to unfold.
The main thing is this:
When we don't hold something aloft, it will fall because it must. NGL will fall because there's nothing to hold it aloft other than the call of the next distribution. This simple bit of physics has me sold on the merit of accumulating but only at lower prices. Now, if units DON'T drop as I'm expecting? Well, then I've got no choice but to pick up the pieces of my pride and do whatever I can because I'm certain units will move much higher and more rapidly upon our receiving guidance for this quarter which won't suffer due to a hot Winter. Also, Grand Mesa receipts will be a boon as will utilization of the Murphy terminals and other newly purchased assets.
Still, anybody not knowledgeable regarding NGL will not see these things very much in play and definitely going to affect our eventual unit price, distributions and any combination of things thereof.
As I said to a good friend earlier today---I don't want to be paying $13 later when I can get units for around $9 now and possibly less a bit later. This is the time to move in for the kill, not when the hyenas are having their fill.
However---do your own thinking and trust your own deductions. This is how we learn---it is by trusting ourselves and continually rethinking things, always in a new light if we can.
Happy hunting!
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