Replies to post #116325 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[falconer66a]

It’s a Weigh the Risks Decision

...why isn't Park West or blackrock or the other growing number of large institutions and funds waiting?

Good question. Institutional ownership of AVXL shares continues to grow, with few or none having been sold. Those firms haven’t been buying or holding positions equivalent to any of ours; they are orders of magnitude larger. The institutions have so much to gain or lose, compared to any of us.

Have they been negligent in conducting due diligence? What, per chance (or intelligent consideration), determines institutional (mutual funds, etc.) decisions to take and hold ever-larger AVXL positions? Could these people be as mis-informed as some of us are portrayed as?

Or, perhaps, these big firms have retained real neurological experts to assess the viability of the Anavex story, from whom the share purchase and retention decisions have been made?

Each reader must decide for himself (herself) just why several big institutional holders of AVXL shares simply don’t have the negative concerns expressed by several experts on this board.

In truth, the institutions have weighed the risks of either waiting for final Phase 3 results to take a large AVXL position, or, to buy in now, before share prices might escalate. For the institutional owners, the risks they have determined for an early, low-price position (which might be lost, should the clinical trials fail), is worth that risk; that the pay-off is most likely to be very rewarding.

So it is, I would think, with those, here, who have taken AVXL positions. Buy now, while share prices are yet below a ten-spot, and take a moderate risk that all would be lost if the big Phase 3 trial fails next year. That risk/reward ratio has been assessed, by both us retail owners and the big institutions. The evidence we and our experts see, points strongly in the hold-now position.

As with all equity due diligence procedures, “Who ya gonna believe?” The big institutions have their experts. We have ours.

[F1ash]

Would you disagree with any of the following statements?

1.) A CEO's job is to do what is best for his company and for his current shareholders.

2.) Optimism from management is usually better for stock price than pessimism.

3.) CEO's are not going to lie on SEC documents because they will be held liable for lying.

4.) If a trial is completed. Something "very positive" observed "at the end of the trial" would have an even more positive effect on share price than if that positive effect only occurred part way through the trial but was no longer present at the end of the trial.

5.)Presenting positive results from a completed Alzheimer's study that showed even stabilization of the entire patient pool for a full year would almost definitely get the investment world and medical world's attention in a big way. That would have a huge impact on share price and almost definitely have partners crawling over each other to get a piece of the action.

Do you disagree with any of those?