I agree and I hope you believe me when I say that I hate to rain on anybody's parade but I think we're heading lower. I say this for several reasons but the bottom line for me is that I want to help you and others here come out with the best possible profit.
The norm is for an MLP to drop notably more than the amount of the distribution ON THE DAY IT GOES EX-DISTRIBUTION. ALDW went ex this morning and it dropped to a low of the day down to $10.25. That's considerably more than it had to drop as a result of being reduced by the amount of the distribution.
It opened at $10.67. But it dropped down to $10.25 for the low of the day. The only way we can make money on this stock tomorrow, next week, next month---is by trading the day-to-day fluctuations for pennies on the dollar. Unless you're controlling thousands of units of this pick, chances are pretty slim that you'll stand to make meaningful gains for the time being.
The rush to climb on board NOW will come from those investors wishing to secure their future positions BEFORE the stock begins its next rise. We are now in the sweet spot of the yearly cycle and units should begin to climb shortly. I may take a week or two, maybe even a month or more---but it will happen because this stock just keeps on ticking and paying out hefty distributions. And it's doing exactly what CVRR would like to be able to do but can't. And its leadership team is as good as it gets now that the General Partner has placed its top level leaders in the top spots. And this company is doing really well!
Right now, however, there's too much geopolitical turmoil affecting the market and it has a lot of people afraid. I'm not greatly afraid but I am definitely moving into cautious mode and holding back from utilizing fresh capital just yet. When things settle down somewhat this will change but for now there's too much uncertainty on which to base smart moves. My thinking is that I'll want to make my moves when something forces ALDW or NGL down to unexpected lows. And an event in Venezuela or Russia or China or No. Korea might be the next tipping point. I don't want to find myself caught in a storm in which there's no safety.
So I'm waiting and watching, knowing that for ninety days going forward, ALDW will be up for grabs. And I can think of nothing likely to propel units much higher and leaving me unable to pay for my ticket for more units...until we're looking a Q3's guidance. That's a couple of months away so there's time. Lots of time, at that.
You paid a good price today, we know that and I applaud you for having the guts to follow through. Going forward, I hope you'll agree that lower prices will probably rule the day. Stay tuned as Pete807, catdaddy and some other special folks here will toss this around as we try to be of service to this board of ours.
Happy hunting, everybody!
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
