Replies to post #129713 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Al4door]

Ex,
so what does Leprecon's figures say about survival, how many months and all that. You keep quoting his figures as the right ones, but are leaving out his final summary?

[Extremist223]

FWIW, I think Leprecon has done an excellent job of running the numbers.

I fail to understand why many are so quick to jump on other analysis that simply makes little to no sense.

BTW, For my personal view, I think the PFS model is hopeless due to "garbage in" issues. The OS looks fairly reasonable though.

I agree completely with all of these statements.

Sentiment to get the average PFS you need to calculate each patients progression time, sum them, and divide by all those patients. Multiplying everyone by the median estimate from protocol, as well as putting a 2:1 progression for the arms is too big an assumption, not to mention pfs has the pseudo problem. As Doc showed, it doesn't fit like a glove at all. For these reasons I don't think your analysis on point.

Apart from leprecon's analysis, abeta would be second best.

The way I have wrapped my head around the trial is to look at worst case scenario as abeta had.

Optune SOC says 31% patients alive at 24 months.

31% of 331 patients of our trial is = 102

As of June we had 100 still alive.

We don't know when those 100 were enrolled, but we can look at the last 100 patients enrolled as a worse case scenario.

The very last patient enrolled was nov 2015.

Nov 1st, 2015 - June 5th 2017 = 19 Months + 3 months time to randomization = 22 months

So if the very last patient is 22 months then the 100th last patient will be longer than 22 months. And that patient was enrolled somewhere around Jan 2015.

Since enrollment through that time period (Jan 2015 - Nov 2015) is roughly linear, we can take the midpoint as an average length of time that all those last 100 were enrolled. Roughly May 2015.

May 1st, 2015 - June 5th 2017 = 23 months + 3 months for randomization = 26 months.

Therefore, our last 100 patients enrolled have a 26 month OS average from surgery.

We have no idea whether they are treatment or control arm, but we know they were alive for that long.

If you are clever, and you are ready to give a rebuttal, it should be: "well you have about 1/3 of your people alive at 24 months just as optune TMZ curve shows!"


Yes we do, but this is our worst cast scenario. Ask yourself this, should all 1/3 of survivor's to the 2 year mark be clustered on the enrollment graph together? NO! Or at least VERY UNLIKELY.

I don't know if optunes curve is from surgery or from randomization (someone here does I forget)

That is just a comparison to Optune SOC showing that our worst case scenario matches them.

Moreover, UCLA shows 30% out to 30 months. Our worst case scenario does not beat or match UCLA as of yet.