::: Market Weekend Update - SHORT TERM By Tony Caldaro | August 19, 2017
The hourly chart illustrates our alternate count, since we still have not been able to totally eliminate this subdivision count. We will not spend much time on it as it is an alternate. What is more interesting is the symmetry for this irregular Int. wave iv. Minor A declined 48 points: 2454-2406. Minor B stretched a bit beyond the 1.618 relationship, with a false breakout, as it rallied 85 points: 2406-2491.
The first decline from the all-time high was 53 points: 2491-2438. Then after a 37 point counter rally: 2438-2475, the market declined 54 points into Friday’s low: 2475-2421. Notice Minor A, and the two declines of Minor C were all about the same size: 48, 53, and 54 points. These last two declines both occurred in a matter of just two days. If you review the NDX/NAZ chart you will observe several steep 2-day declines occurring nearly every month. This appears to be a characteristic of this bull market: quick shake outs.
Should the market continue Friday’s rebound I would expect it to run out of upside momentum in the 2444 – 2456 pivot area. This appears to be the fulcrum for positive/negative trader sentiment. This would also represent another 30+ point rally. Then another 50 point decline could setup the SPX for the downtrend low around 2400.
FOREIGN MARKETS
Despite the negative activity in the US this week, only three of the foreign markets we track were actually negative.
Asian markets were mostly higher for a net gain of 0.4%.
European markets were mostly higher for a gain of 1.0%.
The DJ World index lost 0.2%, and the NYSE lost 0.5%.
COMMODITIES
Bonds continue to uptrend but ended the week flat.
Crude is still in an uptrend but lost 0.3% on the week.
Gold has an uptrend to but lost 0.2%.
The USD remain in a downtrend but gained 0.4%.
NEXT WEEK
Wednesday: new home sales. Thursday: weekly jobless claims and existing home sales. Friday: durable goods orders and a Jackson Hole speech from FED chair Yellen.
Market Weekend Update - SHORT TERM By Tony Caldaro | August 26, 2017
Since corrections are often filled with gap openings, we do not find the seven gap openings since the recent SPX 2491 high thirteen days ago all that unusual. Corrective patterns may appear erratic short term, great for day traders, but when filtered properly one can uncover the larger cleaner pattern. The below is an alternate count and will not be discussed.
As noted previously we have filtered the noise and presented the simpler pattern for both the completed Minor a and incomplete Minor c. We have also observed some symmetry in the Minor a decline. The first three waves down from SPX 2454 bottomed at 2419: 35 points. The last three waves down from SPX 2443 bottomed at 2408: also 35 points. In other words Minute a and Minute c were exactly equal.
Thus far for Minor c we have the first three waves down from the SPX 2491 high bottoming at 2417: 74 points. Now we have a three wave rally up to SPX 2454 thus far. This comparison suggests, when Minute c does get underway the decline may equal 74 points or a Fibonacci 0.618 relationship to that number. The low is naturally relative to where the current three waves rally ends. Short term support is at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week around neutral. Best to your trading!
FOREIGN INDICES
Asian markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 0.9%.
European markets were mixed for a net gain of 0.1%.
The DJ World index gained 1.0%, and the NYSE gained 1.0%.
COMMODITIES
Bonds remain in an uptrend and gained 0.1%.
Crude appears to be in another downtrend and lost 1.6%.
Gold is still in an uptrend and gained 0.5%.
The USD definitely looks to be in its first bear market since 2011, and all other currencies should rise against it in their own bull markets. Reversals in long term trends like this typically last about 5 years. The USD remains in a downtrend and lost 0.7% on the week.
NEXT WEEK
Tuesday: consumer confidence and Case-Shiller. Wednesday: Q2 GDP (est. 2.8%) and the ADP. Thursday: jobless claims, personal income/spending, the CPI, pending homes sales, and the Chicago PMI. Friday: monthly payrolls (est. 180k), ISM , construction spending, consumer sentiment, and auto sales. Best to your weekend and week!
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