Agree with your points. (I may be a little more bullish on the probability of EU approval, as I don't think ADXS would go thru the time and expense of applying if they weren't highly confident that approval will be granted.)
For argument's sake, let's say ADXS doesn't land $200Mish in upfront cash from the combination of AMGEN milestones, an EU partner, and other partnerships (HER2, HOT, etc) in the 2nd half of 2017 ... and needs to raise some additional capital to bridge the gap to when European revenue will be coming in the door.
In that scenario, the plan may be to release some beefy news to get the pps higher, and then raise some additional capital - maybe $80M-$100M - via an approximate 20% dilutive offering (i.e. 8Mish shares at $10+pps).
If that scenario unfolded (in combination with some amount of upfront cash via deals), I think the stock would rally higher on that news, as any near-term cash concerns would be taken off the table, and ADXS could still run much higher on expectations of EU approval in 2018, along with other news released after the capital is raised.
IMO, Lombardo has the future sequence of events mapped out, and IMO we'll be happy with how things unfold.
All that said, I'm hoping ADXS lands at least $200Mish in upfront cash in 2017 via multiple deals, so the market's fear of dilution (which IMO is real) is taken off the table.
GL all.
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