Replies to post #27411 on Ayala Pharmaceuticals Inc (ADXS)

[blueyedcatch]

I`m pretty sure that the company won`t do any of your listed choices. Amgn will be paying us milestones by year end,give or take a month,so no dilution will be needed. As far as the 20-25 dollar buyout,won`t happen. IMO,the company itself feels that it`s worth at least 35 a share right now,and the street just has it wrong,thanks to shorts. How do I know that? I spoke to several employees,including the CFO,and they all felt about the same about the share price,so obviously 20-25 won`t cut the mustard,and that`s if the company would even sell so close to being an approved entity. Once we see the EU partner and submission for approval,this buyout talk of 20-25 dollars will vanish quickly. Don`t trust anyone who tells you that`s the number that will do it,because they`re dead wrong. GLTY. IMO,Amgn will probably be the buyer of Adxs,but Adxs knows what they can get out of them already,and it`s gonna be far more than 20-25 dollars a share. 35-50 a share is my bet.

[fbg0316]

Meish, good to hear from you, it has been a while. Any thoughts on O'Connor's resignation? You must be quite surprised given how you thought has was doing a great job.

So you would rather see $100 million raised at $6? Interesting. What your figures and projections don't address is the business plan, according to O'Connor, was the aggregate capital raises of more than $200 million over the last four years at a average cost of $12 were targeted to take us to a potential current stock price of $50 by now (actually by 2015). Instead, O'Connor left having destroyed 40% of shareholder value of investors who recapitalized the company at $12. Last August was our last secondary offering in which Fidelity bought in at $13.50. Now you think it's a good idea to raise capital at $6? How about a BP deal on our late stage AXAL asset for Europe with $50 million in upfront non-dilutive cash, or perhaps a BP deal on HER2 or HOT with upfront non-dilutive cash? Wouldn't that be preferable? I guess not, you would rather see more dilution at the current weak price (more than a 50% discount to the secondary offering less than a year ago? A cynic might wonder whether you have an agenda and have shorted the stock.

[Funky_Omnivore]

Meish,

Thats really a worst case scenario for dilution. I find it hard to believe that no material events happening the 2nd half of 2017 would lead us to a higher share price / enterprise value that would allow the company to perform any needed capital raises at a more favorable share price. I personally wouldn't like to see any dilution below $15 / share, but also understand how this game is played. $10+ seems very reasonable though IMO.

[ignatiusrielly35]

Meisha, I'm surprised you didn't mention that there are other options. For example, licensing deals for AXAL EU, HOT, any of the combo indications, etc. Successful small biotechs succeed by entering into strong partnerships with BPs for capital. No more dilution, which is the option that you always seem to push. Definitely not at anything near this price. I'm starting to wonder if you have a vested interest in seeing an offering or private placement. Now, if ADXS wanted to place 5 million shares with someone like Baker Brothers I would be more likely to consider that option. But even if they did that I would wait at least until the EMA submission is completed, PETX gets approval, NEO gets underway, etc. Another option is to sell the company for MORE than FBG's arbitrary buyout price.