FBG asked which option we would choose:
1) Cash buyout of the company in the coming weeks or months in the range of $20 to $25 from an entity like Amgen who will be able to take the platform to market faster and exchange your shares with cash at a nice premium so that you will never have to worry about short manipulation, poor management of the company, another clinical hold, etc.
2) Another massive dilution that pushes the stock price down even lower than the level we are at (and the current stock level ALREADY represents 40% shareholder value destroyed over the last four years under O'Connor) at a time when the broad market is at an all time high and the bull market is getting long in the tooth?
I'd go for #2, without any hesitation. Why? Because if they raise, say, $100M at, say, $6.00/ sh (is that "massive dilution"? I don't know, but it's reasonable given previous raise pricing), that's 16.7M more shares on a base of 40.5M shares, that's 57.2M shares total. I believe with $100M more in the bank, ADXS will be able to easily not only complete Ph3, but get through FDA approval. That would turn this company into one worth at least $5B in 2 years.
So, $5B/ 57.2M shares = $87/ share. So, while you are happy with $20-$25/ share undiluted, I'm not. I'd rather be diluted "massively" and earn 3X what you're willing to settle for.
I really do not understand your thinking, FBG.
Dilution is GOOD when it leads to greater value creation, which would certainly be the case with ADXS UNLESS you do not believe in the Lm platform.
Personally, I think with another $250M in dilutive capital, ADXS could be worth $20B because it would have one indication in market and 2-3 more coming on line soon (all that in 5 years). That's an easy deal for me to take.
