Replies to post #111695 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Steady_T]

The reasons for the wider market not being as interested in AVXL as some think they should have been discussed here multiple times.

Small trial size.

No placebo group.

Only P2a.

Failure rate of new drugs to make it to market over 95%.

Data from P2b interim not published.

Huge short position.

Untried drug approach in AD.

Claims that sound to good to be true.

Before you start trying to rebut each of those items. I'm answering your question about why the wider market doesn't value ANAVEX higher. I am not saying that I think each of those items is a reason not to invest in avxl.

The positive information and data is good enough for me to invest in avxl. For many people it's not there yet.

[nidan7500]

Bater,goose, others ...thanks for inspiration and great thoughts around why we are holding. Sounds like most question why AVXL silence. Me too. I feel A2-73 is BTD level, maybe even bigger, what ever that might be. If it is that good, we will probably not have to wait for any official FDA (big daddy) declaration and I think Dr. M. sees that coming. Then what happens? One 30 second video of one little recovered Rett girl could rewrite the rules overnight. My theory is Dr. M. is not silent by choice. M. has been way out in front all along, If he said publically what he believes, the men in the white coats would throw a blanket over him. IMO, the new FDA timeline declaration is evidence AVXL must be in the room, at the table and throwing elbows w/BP who will fight any change that hurts them. No other explanation makes sense and it is good news for AVXL, as much as that buys us. As Bill Murray once said in caddy shack.."so we got that going for us."

I have been directly involved in delivering one breakthrough many years ago. That company's output skyrocketed and never looked back. As far as I know the people who were telling me it was impossible are still standing there w/their mouths open. They never recovered either.

IMO, an unintended consequence of A2-73 treatment when it is better defined will be a complete rethink of much of BP. Will big $$$ be lost there? Can you say crash? Probably. Will medical device sales/uses be impacted (MRI/X ray/imaging)? What about the whole care industry? We really have no idea where this will go but we can say with confidence that if A2-73...and follow up does start a ball rolling and the FDA new rules accelerate that thinking then we witnessed it all right here. Are these fantasies, not really as much as projections based on current realities. In fact I look forward to the time when BP and the people who are slowing the change initiatives(and there must be many) will be questioned about their current motives and methods. IMO, we are actually winning even if it does not always feel that way.