where it stops ...only the MM's and wall steet players know. it could stop here and bounce , or not.
I was watching as this downwave Began, at the 5.74 peak,then the Failure resistance the other day at 5.65,was the big warning sign ,for me, then it stepped down to 5.60 Failing there was big, and down it goes to test 5.40 the other day. Then it bounces back to Fail at a lower high, whatever it was, 5.57/5.60 . In any case, for me...it started at 5.74 Failure, then 5.65 Failure. that was a resistance shoulder zone,lets say on the 1 month chart, the 10 day chart, even shorter time frames show the little shoulder, the head at the 5.74 peak, and then the 5.65 becomes a shoulder.as well as the 5.60 Failure, you can see the shoulder here.
I like the head and shoulder patterns ,Chuck. they usually tend to be reliable to see Failures there. and also the reverse head and shoulder at bottom zones(for bottoms to bounce into rallies.)
On the AVXL chart, you can see what was previous bottom at 5.10 (as the head) and the 5.20-5.30 area as the reverse shoulder zone, for support, IF we see the plunge today hold at the 5.20 area and begin a good recovery, that reverse head and shoulder pattern would be telling, but right now, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the bleeding down continue, even right to the 4.90 target we talked about recently....and like you said, IF we see 4.90 fail.... it could plunge to 4.70 and lower before it finds the final bottom. I might believe the odds are 50/50 we could see that kind of continued downwave. Unless the 5.20 holds ,or critical 5.10/5.00 holds.
Its clear looking at the Range Pattern still ongoing, now retesting the Range Bottom again... no reason to think we wont see the range bottom at 5 dollars .... The Danger coming off this latest rally thatPeaked/ Failed at 5.74, was that any bullish rally pattern to that bounce really needed to hold support around the 50Fib retrace, which would have been the 5.40 area (5.30-5.40) you can stretch it down to the 5.20/5.25 but not a complete retrace to 5.10, that just turns it back into the Range Pattern. A "rally pattern" needed to see strength at the 5.40 /5.30 support. and we see this week what the Powers did with 5.40
so it has some more danger even here,IF we don't see a good bounce from the 5.20 area, a good bounce meaning a rally wave like the one we got from 5.10 to 5.74, we need another one from 5.20 to 5.90 area or at least back to 5.70 and begin recovery.... there is Danger that a small bounce, this is important to watch now, .... a small bounce that only retests 5.40-5.50-5.55-5.60 is where the next big Failure can propel more selling to make the rest of the downwave target the 4.90/4.70 and final Bottom for the Whole chart wave picture. That Whole wave meaning the rally from 2.43 bottom to 6.64 top. That wave, has a Fibonacci retrace zone 5.00-4.70-4.50 area.
Bottom line now,We need to see , for a bullish pattern to recover, a rally now that breaks thru the 5.50-5.60 Resistance wall. and targets at least 5.90-6.00 area.....and THEN pulls back to HOLD support above the 5.50-5.60 wall.
Youre probably one of the only TA people who could understand what I just said...LOL but thats the picture I'm watching. .
and of course it focuses more on a longer time frame, not so much intraday but daily chart, 30 minute monthly chart. but Ive gotten better at watching intraday in recent years. just not as sharply as you do.
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