Replies to post #124073 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Evaluate]

kabunushi, you wrote:

The median OS for SoC has been a bit higher than what NWBO cites as their target, and maybe 25-30% survival at 24 months.
The survival curves for dc-vax treatment might track fairly close to SoC until 20-24 months but with SoC patients die off heavily and 30-36 month survival of much more than 10% would be exceptional.

Based on your above estimate of merely 25-30% survival at 24 months for the SOC arm .... what do you estimate the mOS for SOC(Placebo) to be? Would be substantially shorter than 24 months, correct?

JammyJames included this estimate in his post 123714:
Blended mOS: 24-25 months
placebo mOS:19-20 months
DCVax-L mOS:26-27 months

Kabunushi, do you agree with 19-20 months for placebo mOS? (Or might you think it is even shorter?).
It would appear to me that if these above estimates are approximately correct, that "the survival curves for dc-vax treatment might track fairly close to SoC" until something substantially shorter than 19 months?
And the variance of about 7 months mOS in the above estimates between Placebo mOS & Treatment mOS would seem to already be sufficient for stat sig Secondary Endpoint success .... let alone if/when the long tail is taken into account?