Hey strik, this has been nothing but a nightmare for me. Two years ago they said we were off to the races, then they put the engine in reverse and now we are probably two years away from anything.
We have no integrated products on the market yet, no InP, not GaAs -- nothing. We will be selling components to start, pieces of pieces of pieces. The revenues look scant until 2019, when these new integrated products will allegedly kick into gear.
While the presentation is nice and the tech is well described, the revenue forecast beyond 2018 is based 90%± on guesswork. Will their 100g transceiver become a game changer? There are scores of companies trying to make inroads, spending billions, to be best in class. What are the odds?
The GaAs platform seems to taking second place to InP. So the foundational POET technology remains incomplete with an uncertain future. The transceiver is the most basic integrated optoelectronic device and it is now a year overdue, but it remains scheduled for late 2018 commercialization. It does not seem to add up.
Have I given up completely? No, but I have bitten the bullet and sold some to investigate other opportunities. There are so many trip wires along the way that, even if we get good news I will have plenty of time to expand my holdings. Time to explore again. Proto, Rickface, Steve S, lots of questions coming your way.
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