Replies to post #28184 on Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[Wild-bill]

Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 06/20 2017 EOD

Nothing I see suggests positive near-term moves and almost everything suggests near-term negative moves are coming. I'm expecting an exit soon from the short consolidation into a leg lower. With the behavior after another positive PR so strongly resembling what we had seen in the recent past (before the ATM became so apparent), I have to believe that going forward we will be relapsing into old chronic debilitating behaviors in this market.

If I wasn't so nit-picky I would describe today's trade as low-volume absolutely flat. Details resulting from my nit-pickiness are below.

There were no pre-market trades.

B/a just before open was 200:100 $0.63/$0.7599.

09:30-10:55 opened the day with a 1,225 sell for $0.6892 & $0.6923 x 116. B/a just after open was 12K:8.6K $0.6886/$0.71. Then came 9:34's 91 $0.7078/99, 9:38's b/a 12K:7K $0.6886/$0.7099, 9:47's 100:7.1K $0.69/$0.7079, 9:45's 5 $0.7079, 9:53's 24 $0.69, 9:57's 29.9K $0.6886 (13.1K incl 11.6K blk)/75/99 (3.3K)/$0.69 (13.5K), 9:58's 50 $0.69 (5)/$0.685 (45), 10:00's b/a 9.4K:100 $0.6850/$0.70, 10:05's 100 $0.70, 10:11's 100 $0.6928, 10:16's 100 $0.685, 10:17's 300 $0.7005/79/01, 10:17's b/a 9.4K:219 $0.6850/$0.7005, 10:28's 1K $0.6973, 10:32's b/a 1.5K:100 $0.6850/98, 10:38's 500 $0.6884/50 (250 ea.), 10:49's 1.3K138 $0.6850/98, 10:54's 100 $0.6850. The period ended on 10:55's 500 $0.6987.

10:56-12:11 during the initial eleven no-trades minutes had b/a at 11:00 of 1.2K:238 $0.6850/$0.6998. Trade began an extremely low/no-volume stepping up (surprise, surprise!) from $0.6850/61 on 11:07's 100 $0.6850. B/a at 11:16 was 100 $0.6861, 11:17 1.1K:238 $0.6850/$0.6998, 11:32 5.2K:3.7K $0.6900/97. 11:37's 405 hit $0.6910 and 11:46's 375 hit $0.6915/22. B/a at 11:49 was 300:2.2K $0.6915/96. 11:50's 244 hit $0.6996. B/a at 12:00 was 5.1K:3.3K $0.6900/91 (offers jiggling (1/92). The period ended on 12:11's 100 $0.6975.

12:12-14:16, after two no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.6950/78, with slowly falling highs, on 12:14's 2.3K $0.6953 (100)/75. B/a at 12:17 was 4.1K:200 $0.6930/79, 12:32 5.3K:1.6K $0.6930/78, 12:47 5K:100 $0.6950/78. Volume was interrupted by 12:49's 6.9K $0.6950 and 12:59's 5K $0.6966. B/a at 13:02 was 4.8K:500 $0.6950/77. The highs recovered some on 13:18's 100 $0.6977 and b/a at 13:19 became 4.8K:200 $0.6951/81. The b/a couldn't hold though and b/a at 13:30 was 4.8K:1.6K $0.6950/$0.6979, 13:47 4.7K:1.5K $0.6950/79, 14:02 4.6K:1.3K $0.6950/84. The period ended on 14:16's 400 $0.6950.

14:17-15:44 during the initial four no-trades minutes had b/a at 14:17 of 4.1K:1.9K $0.6950/84 (offers falling). Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.6950/84 on 14:21's 100 $0.6984. B/a at 14:32 was 4.1K:1.5K $0.6950/87, 14:48 4K:2K $0.6950/87 (offers jiggling 2K $0.6987/8 200), 15:02 3.8K:2.1K $0.6950/91, 15:17 3.4K:2.3K $0.6950/91, 15:32 1.8K:2.1K $0.6950/84, 15:47 89:1.5K $0.6950/70 (bids backed by presented 5.1K $0.6930). The period ended on 15:44's 300 $0.6950.

15:45-16:00 during the initial five no-trades minutes had b/a at 15:47 of 89:1.5K $0.6950/70 (bids backed by presented 5.1K $0.6930). Trade began extremely low-volume (until 15:58) $0.6930/60, through 15:58's 2.1K $0.6960, on 15:50's 100 $0.6930. B/a at 15:58 was 4.9K:700 $0.6930/64 (offers falling). The day and period ended with a push up on 15:59's 3.1K $0.6960 (100)/98 (300)/96 (1K)/$0.70 (1.7K) and 16:00's odd-lot 75 for $0.693, making the official close 15:59's last $0.70 because odd-lots are not permitted to be any official metric.

There were no AH trades.

Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 5 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 36,790, 49.52% of day's volume, with a $0.6914 VWAP. For the day's volume the count seems normal. The percentage of day's volume is a little high, but not egregiously so. The VWAP is below the day's $0.6929. With the volume so low I don't know we could read much into any of this other than likely some day traders, shorters or MMs taking advantage. Below note there were only two periods with the larger trades.

 Ending  Period  Period  Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End 
 Period  Volume     Low    High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~% 
  10:55   33931 $0.6850 $0.7079    $23,407.07 $0.6898 45.67% 29.60% Incl 09:57 $0.6886 11,600 $0.6900 4,290 9,000 
  12:11    4975 $0.6850 $0.6996     $3,431.96 $0.6898  6.70% 26.25% 
  14:16   19991 $0.6930 $0.6978    $13,915.86 $0.6961 26.91% 35.57% Incl 12:49 $0.6950 6,900 12:59 $0.6966 5,000 
  15:44    8500 $0.6950 $0.6984     $5,915.91 $0.6960 11.44% 35.22% 
  16:00    5391 $0.6930 $0.7000     $3,761.81 $0.6978  7.26% 38.97%

With volume so low and such minimal movement in VWAPs and buy percentages, no estimates of what was going on would be reasonable. I do guess that the ATM was not in use though because the buy percentages didn't really show any weakening and VWAPs showed very little movement. My best guess would be just a few day traders and MMs churning the market to make a little money.

On the traditional TA front, movements were:

          __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_ 
 Today      1.35%   0.74%  -0.25%  -0.57% -50.57% 
 Prior     -4.23%   0.00%  -2.10%   2.03%  20.99%

These movements are indicative of the very short-term consolidation I suggested we were entering. The higher open and low combined with the lower high, close and, especially, volume, are signatures of consolidation. They are also very common precursors to exiting consolidation, which I believe will be to the downside.

This was produced by a long slow minimal decline through about 11:30 followed by a short rise back up to the prior level by about 11:45 and a flat and narrowing range for the rest of the day. Certainly not indicative of any bullish sentiment and definitely indicative of consolidating behavior.

On my minimal chart about 3/4ths of the day's range was below the declining fast EMA's $0.7024 (was $0.7047) (our close was $0.70). With the slow EMA still rising while the fast EMA declines at a somewhat rapid rate, I expect the fast EMA will cross below the slow EMA very soon now, maybe even tomorrow as I don't expect we'll stay in consolidation.

Today's low volume ought to complete the left side of the volume bars' "cupping pattern". I expect we'll shortly see volume begin to rise and see some price movement out of consolidation. My best estimate is it will be to the downside.

For the third consecutive day the descending channel (descending blue lines) upper support/resistance provided support. The continued testing of this support makes me suspect we'll soon re-enter the descending channel and then, as with yesterday, hope for support from it's bottom line.

Our trading range is a bit above the mid-point of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band. History suggests that we'll likely move closer to the lower limit as time passes, assuming no catalyst of course.

On my one-year chart, today's trade was almost completely below the still-rising 10-day's $0.7065 and was about 75% below the still-falling 50-day SMA's $0.7016. Like yesterday, today managed again to recover some and close at $0.70, marginally lower than the 10-day's $0.7065 and 50-day's $0.7016. The 10 and 20-day are still rising, but I think the modicum of hope that the price decline would begin to slow is fading with the volume.

Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in accumulation/distribution, RSI, momentum, and Williams %R. Deterioration occurred in MFI (untrusted by me), full stochastic and ADX-related. RSI, MFI and momentum were slightly above neutral. Williams %R, full stochastic and ADX-related were below neutral. Nothing was overbought or oversold but full stochastic was very close to entering oversold.

Today had a second day of improvement in accumulation/distribution. Weakening also occurred in RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R (close to oversold), full stochastic (entered oversold), and ADX-related.

The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6355 and $0.7577 ($0.6171 and $0.7638 yesterday), continued converging with a slightly rising mid-point due to the lower limit rising faster than the upper limit declines.

All in, everything I see is strongly negative but for the intra-day breakdown. It is more suggestive of consolidation or mild weakening. Since most folks that play in the markets watch the conventional TA I have to think they will respond to that. So I would have to think that weakening on exit from consolidation is the most likely outcome. I expect exit from consolidation with a couple days at most.



Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, and both rose, also good. But not good enough. Short percentage remains well below the bottom of my desired range (needs re-check) and buy percentage well below what's needed to even just expect price to hold steady. In aggregate both of these are strongly suggestive of near-term weakening.

The spread contracted even further and is no in a range compatible with consolidation. If it weren't for the buy and short percentages, along with the volume behavior, I would guess we would remain in consolidation. Those other factors outweigh the spread's indication though and I expect were are near the end of the consolidation.

The VWAP broke the trend of four consecutive down days, but it wasn't a break worth hollering about - up 0.29%. If volume had been better we might rejoice in this. As it is we just take another shot and await the inevitable I think.

The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements held steady for the fourth consecutive day at 14 negatives and 10 positives. Change since 05/16 is $0.0287, 4.32%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.2079%, 0.2379%, 0.2486%, 0.2622%, 0.5035%, 0.6348%, 0.3385%, 0.1182%, -0.0514%, and -0.2146%.

All in, best case would be consolidation extending further than I anticipate, but that's not the most likely case in my estimation. I expect another day or two, at most, of consolidation, with some weakening and then an exit into a down leg.

Bill