Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 06/21 2017 EOD
Everything I see, but for the short percentage, is strongly suggestive of more near-term weakness. Volume was high enough however, and everything else is so bad, that contrarians may see opportunity and give a short-term reprieve.
Not me though.
Today was open high, drop to begin a short sideways movement, drop more, recover and do a long sideways, drop some more, and finally go into a close just a tenth off the day's low.
Today had the lowest VWAP, $0.6632, since 6/5's $0.6584.
Note the five-minute period ending at 14:04 took ~21% of days volume and bumped buy percentage from 13:59's 17.71% to 22.99%. This was also the lowest VWAP period to this point in the day. If it really was a buy, I think apparently some good customer got serviced. With a 17.7K block trade and several other "larger trades", this may have been a "behind the curtain" intra/inter-broker trade. OTOH, see the note below where a scenario in which the MM(s) sold short and then covered might have been the game.
While watching the day play out I kept thinking the ATM was in use. I'm sure Cowan & Co. are "good customers" and can count on MM support when needed. If all this is the case, ATM use may be the underlying driver behind what was seen today, including substantially increased volume with no catalyst in sight.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 300:100 $0.61/$0.7399.
09:30-10:11 opened the day with a 3,032 buy for $0.7055 & $0.70 x 139, $0.68 x 485, $0.70 x 1K, x 730, $0.7055 x 7. B/a just after open was 11.6K:3.4K $0.68/$0.7089. Then came 9:31's 200 $0.6819, 9:33's 1.2K $0.7078, 9:33's b/a 11.6K:3.4K $0.68/$0.7089, 9:35-:49's 100/200 $0.6901 at irregular minutes, 9:42's b/a 500:3.4K $0.69/$0.7089, 9:50's 7.2K $0.70/$0.6801/00, 9:51's b/a 17.3K:3.4K $0.68/$0.7089, 9:51-10:07's 200-400 $0.6801/0 at irregular intervals (almost every minute though), 9:52's 400 $0.6801/0/01/0, 9:53's 200 $0.6801/0, 9:54's 200 $0.6801/0, 9:55's 400 $0.6801/0/1/0, 10:00's b/a 16.3K:3.4K $0.68/$0.7089, 10:08's450 $0.6801/$0.7086/$0.6801/0, 10:09-:10's $0.6801/0 200 shares each. The period ended on 10:11's 33.1K $0.6801/0/1 (15.3K blk)/0 (17.4K).
10:12-10:46 did a step lower on 10:12-13's 150 $0.6793 and 150 $0.6793 to begin an extremely low/no-volume decline from $0.6750/98 (most highs near the low). B/a at 10:14 was 4K:6.7K $0.6750/99, 10:32 2.4K:900 $0.6750/98. 10:42's 100 hit $0.6701, 10:43's 900 $0.67. B/a at 10:42 was 71:2.3K $0.6750/98 (bids backed by presented 1K $0.67 & 24K $0.66). 10:44's 900 hit $0.6603/2. The period ended on 10:46's 100 $0.6603.
10:47-11:18 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6610/$0.6799, with slowly rising lows, on 10:47's 1.3K $0.6797 (1.2K)/50. B/a at 10:54 was 1.6K:300 $0.6602/$0.6798, 11:02 1.7K:100 $0.6620/$0.6799. 11:15 lows were up to $0.67. B/a at 11:17 was 15.1K:2.5K $0.6700/98 ("west coasties" arrive?). The period ended on 11:18's 646 $0.6704 (446)/00 (200).
11:19-12:39 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6700/99 on 11:19's 1.5K $0.6700 (300)/97 (900)/47/67. B/a at 11:32 was 13.2K:2.5K $0.6700/98. Volume was interrupted by 11:44's 5K $0.6798 (3.8K)/00 (200)/98/94/98 (600)/99. B/a at 12:17 was 200:2K $0.6701/97. The period ended on 12:39's 100 $0.67.
12:40-13:01 began extremely low/no-volume $0.666/$0.67 on 12:40's 4.9K $0.6698 (1.2K)/$0.67 (1.75K)/$0.666 (876)/$0.67 (676)/$0.666/$0.67. B/a at 12:47 was 6.7K:200 $0.6660/$0.6798. The period ended on 13:01's 200 $0.666.
13:02-13:59 began extremely low/no-volume $0.666/$0.6798, with slowly falling highs, on 13:02's 2.5K $0.6798 (2K)/00. B/a at 13:04 was 15.1K:100 $0.6660/$0.6798, 13:24 12.1K:200 $0.6660/$0.6797, 13:36 11.4K:700 $0.6660/$0.6797, 13:49 9.8K:2.8K $0.6660/$0.6747 (offers falling). The period ended on 13:59's 7.1K $0.666.
14:00-14:04 did a high-volume drop after 14:00's 100 $0.662. 14:02's 33.1K did $0.6600 (28.1K)/20 (1K)/00 (814)/$0.6580 (800)/60 (700)/00 (1.8K). 14:03's 27.5K did $0.66 (26.4K incl 17.7K blk)/5 (1.1K). 14:04 did 9.9K $0.6500 (5.4K)/10 (2K)/35 (1.6K)/00 (1K).
N.B. This was the lowest VWAP thus far and was ~21% of day's volume. The following period was the only lower-VWAP period and had a higher percentage of day's volume along with a relatively flat and low buy percentage. This might mean the MM(s) did short sells into that 14:04 period and then held price down to do covering buys. We'll never know.
14:05-16:00, after two no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.6500/09, with one major volume interruption and several price interruptions, on 14:07's 1.5K $0.6500 (600)/01 (300)/00 (295)/99 (300). B/a at 14:09 was 13.7K:2.6K $0.6500/99. Price was interrupted by 14:50's 200 $0.6508. Price and volume were interrupted by 15:07's 3.1K $0.67/$0.655/$0.67 (204)/$0.6510 (300)/50/94/$0.66/$0.67/$0.6508 (200). B/a at 15:08 was 500:100 $0.6508/$0.66. Volume was interrupted by 15:22's 65.5K $0.6510/00 (38.4K blk)/14 (8.7K)/10 (6.1K)/00 (4.6K)/07 (5K)/10/00 (1.3K)/10 (500)/00. B/a at 15:32 was 31:500 $0.6506/43 (bids backed by presented6.4K $0.65). Price was interrupted by 15:44's 200 $0.65. B/a at 15:47 was 3K:200 $0.6521/$0.67. The period and day ended on 15:59's 1.5K $0.65 and 16:00's 230 buy for $0.651.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 19 larger trades (>=5K & 9 4K+) totaling 156,674, 45.90% of day's volume, with a $0.6611 VWAP. For the day's volume, the count seems reasonable but the percentage of day's volume is a bit high, likely due to several "larger larger trades". The VWAP is below the day's $0.6632.
All this makes me think a "good customer" was getting serviced, in this case I believe Cowan & Co. because the behavior of the trade intra-day makes me think the ATM was in use. This thinking may be supported by the fact that the spread was wide and the buy percentage was very low while the short percentage was slightly below my desired range. However, that latter condition may be a result of the larger block trades, likely inter/intra-broker trades which seldom generate short flags. Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:11 47013 $0.6800 $0.7086 $32,146.51 $0.6838 13.77% 14.91% Incl 10:11 $0.6800 5,600 7,596 $0.6801 15,300
10:46 9416 $0.6602 $0.6798 $6,336.54 $0.6730 2.76% 13.52%
11:18 12946 $0.6610 $0.6799 $8,649.38 $0.6681 3.79% 17.24%
12:39 33249 $0.6700 $0.6799 $22,356.61 $0.6724 9.74% 18.92% Incl 12:14 $0.6700 4,700 12:20 $0.6701 4,000
13:01 16200 $0.6660 $0.6700 $10,832.72 $0.6687 4.75% 16.98% Incl 12:47 $0.6674 4,400
13:59 22322 $0.6660 $0.6798 $14,918.95 $0.6684 6.54% 17.71% Incl 13:59 $0.6660 4,753
14:04 70771 $0.6500 $0.6620 $46,603.98 $0.6585 20.73% 22.99% Incl $0.6600 14:02 4,500 14:03 4,300
$0.6600 14:03 17,700 $0.6500 14:04 5,381
16:00 126195 $0.6500 $0.6797 $82,407.38 $0.6530 36.97% 23.89% Incl 14:51 $0.6600 4,000 15:02 $0.6510 5,000
15:22 $0.6500 4,619 38,400 $0.6507 4,300
15:22 $0.6510 6,092 $0.6514 8,741
15:36 $0.6797 7,292
It looks to me like the early part of the day, having the highest VWAP's and lowest buy percentages, was caused by heavy ATM use. After that ...
Take note of the 14:04 periods percentage of day's volume and the effect on buy percentage. Maybe more important is the lowest VWAP to that point with only the succeeding period's VWAP being lower. Along with all of this suggesting servicing of a good customer, it also suggests that MMs/shorters may have been involved and done covering buys at attractive prices because the final period's buy percentage rose slightly as that period generated the day's lowest VWAP.
On the traditional TA front, movements were: __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 2.37% -5.11% 0.10% -7.00% 359.40%
Prior 1.35% 0.74% -0.25% -0.57% -50.57%
Yesterday I said { These movements are indicative of the very short-term consolidation I suggested we were entering. The ... and, especially, volume, are signatures of consolidation. They are also very common precursors to exiting consolidation, which I believe will be to the downside. }
I've been saying I thought this would be a very short consolidation. I believe today we've begun the exit to the downside, as I I've also been saying.
This was produced by, and is supported by, the intra-day behavior, described above.
On my minimal chart about 1/2 the day's range was below the declining fast EMA's $0.6775 (was $0.7024) (our close was $0.6510). The slow EMA switched from rising to falling but the fast EMA quicker decline still gave a cross below the slow EMA, matching yesterday's { I expect the fast EMA will cross below the slow EMA very soon now, maybe even tomorrow as I don't expect we'll stay in consolidation. }
This is not good and suggests more downside is likely near-term.
I also noted { Today's low volume ought to complete the left side of the volume bars' "cupping pattern". I expect we'll shortly see volume begin to rise and see some price movement out of consolidation. My best estimate is it will be to the downside. } Volume began to rise (boy did it!) and it looks like we've begun to exit the short-term consolidation to the downside.
After three consecutive days of support from the descending channel (descending blue lines) upper support/resistance, the trade range, and close, moved below that line, validating yesterday's { The continued testing of this support makes me suspect we'll soon re-enter the descending channel and then, as with yesterday, hope for support from it's bottom line. }
Tomorrow should tell the story - either we close above the line, failing to confirm a re-entry into the channel and the line remains potential support, or we close below the line and it becomes resistance. I expect volume will be lower as the uncertainty generate by this move and need for confirmation cause the short-term traders to back off a bit.
Yesterday the trading range was a bit above the mid-point of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band and I noted { History suggests that we'll likely move closer to the lower limit as time passes, assuming no catalyst of course. } Today the range moved the low to within about a penny-and-a-half of the lower limit's $0.6358.
In aggregate, this chart is looking quite ugly with the trend of falling range on rising volume. Being today was the first penetration into the descending channel we can hope for some relief, and maybe a reversal tomorrow. If we do get a reversal I think watching the volume will be important. It would be nice to see a rise, but a relatively small decline would also be common and offer additional hope of move upward.
On my one-year chart, today's trade was again almost completely below the now-falling 10-day's $0.7047 and was about 85% below the still-falling 50-day SMA's $0.6984. Unlike yesterday, today did not manage to again recover some and the close was barely above the day's low. The 20-day SMA is still rising.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had a second day of improvement in accumulation/distribution. Weakening occurred in RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R (close to oversold), full stochastic (entered oversold), and ADX-related.
Today had weakening return to accumulation/distribution and every other oscillator I watch also weakened. Every one but MFI (untrusted by me) is below neutral and Williams %R and full stochastic are in oversold. RSI is close to being there.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6358 and $0.7575 ($0.6355 and $0.7577 yesterday), continued converging (barely) with a slightly rising mid-point due to the lower limit rising faster than the upper limit declines. For all practical purposes, the limits have gone flat and the mid-point is static.
All in, I can't imagine how this could be any more negative. That offers hope that a reversal will occur as contrarians are always looking for such a condition. With the ATM facility always potentially intervening though I am not disposed to view things that way. I remain negative thinking we have exited the consolidation and will do a down leg, at least for the near-term.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not a good thing. The short percentage is only a bit below my desired range, which may be good enough consider the larger trades effect today, but the buy percentage moved even further from where is needed to hope for price appreciation.
The spread widened to a value suggesting we exited consolidation and further movement in the direction indicated is most likely. "Indicated" for now equals "lower".
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements
held steady for the fifth consecutive day at 14 negatives and 10 positives. Change since 05/17 is $0.0103, 1.57%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.0999%, 0.2079%, 0.2379%, 0.2486%, 0.2622%, 0.5035%, 0.6348%, 0.3385%, 0.1182%, and -0.0514%.
All in, everything but the short percentage suggests more near-term downside as most likely.
Bill
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