Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 06/08 2017 EOD
But for one thing I have to stick with yesterday's Conventional TA leaves me thinking near-term bullishness, against my better judgement and my TFH, and is supported, somewhat, by my unconventional stuff which leans me toward short-term consolidation with a mild positive bias ... and { ... and I have to assess the short-term as more positive than I would normally. }
The one exception is we may be exiting, or getting ready to be exiting, short-term consolidation. I expect we'll move on to challenge the known $0.70/72 resistance and behavior there will probably the determinant.
There was a PR, Large Southern California Egg Farm Adopts Clean-and-Green Capstone CHP Solution.
The day was an open low, drop a couple pennies in the first three minutes and then spend the rest of t5he day through around 13:30 moving higher on predominately low.no-volume. Trade then went mostly low/no-volume flattish through ~14:45, after which price weakened some but still closed the day at $0.6843, +2.15%.
Note that 10:05-10:06 did 11.7%, ~22.4K, of day's volume and ~86% of all prior volume and bumped buy percentage from 10:04's ~58% to 77.39% with a VWAP of $0.67.
Note that price struggled at $0.69, very near known $0.70/2 resistance.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 1.5K:700 $0.65/$0.70.
09:30-10:04 opened the day with a 5,456 buy for $0.67. B/a just after open was 32.7K:3.2K $0.65/7. Then came 9:31's 100 $0.67, 9:32's 650 $0.67 (100)/$0.6501, 9:34's 100 $0.67, 9:35's 5.1K $0.67, 9:37-:39's 100 ea. $0.67, 9:41's 350 $0.6699/$0.67 (100), 9:42's b/a 32.7K:1.6K $0.65/7, 9:42's 100 $0.67, 9:44-:45's 100 ea $0.67, 9:46's 5.1K $0.67/$0.6510 (5K), 9:47,:49-:50's 100 ea. $0.67, 9:49's b/a 32.7K:1.5K $0.65/7, 9:52-:53's 100 ea. $0.67, 9:55's 100 $0.67, 9:56's b/a 800:1.6K $0.6503/$0.67, 9:57's 5.1K $0.67/$0.6699/$0.67 (2.5K)/$0.6699 (2.4K), 9:58's 2.5K $0.6699, 9:59-10:00's, 10:02-:03's 100 ea. $0.67, 10:04's b/a 2.7K:2.3K $0.6616/$0.67 (bids rising), and the period ended on 10:04's 100 $0.67.
10:05-10:06 did two high-volume minutes comprising 85.86% of all preceding volume and 11.7% of day's volume. 10:05 did 15.5K $0.6699/$0.67 and 10:06 did 7K $0.67.
10:07-11:40 began very low/medium-volume through 10:48 and extremelylow/no-volume thereafter. Range began $0.6699/$0.67 on 10:07's 1.6K $0.67 until volume was interrupted by 10:16's 10.4K $0.67. During the 10:18-:28 period range spread to $0.667/$0.678. B/a at 10:47 was 600:4.2K $0.6747/50, 11:02 760:2.2K $0.6748/50. Price and volume were interrupted by 11:17's 11.5K $0.6700 (tot 5210)/49 (tot 6.3K). B/a at 11:17 460:576 $0.6704/50, 11:32 400:1.7K $0.6749/$0.68. The period ended on 11:40's 500 $0.675.
11:41-13:02 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6749/$0.68 on 11:41's 1K $0.6799. B/a at 11:47 was 800:1.7K $0.6749/$0.68, 12:02 400:1.7K $0.6749/$0.68, 12:17 500:1.7K $0.6749/$0.68. 12:28-:50 traded only 100 shares $0.6775/$0.68 (few) at 2-4 random minute intervals. B/a at 12:32 was 400:1.7K $0.6749/$0.68, 12:47 400:1.6K $0.6749/$0.68, 13:02 400:1.6K $0.6749/$0.68. The period ended on 13:02's 10.1K $0.6775.
13:03-13:33, after two no-trades minutes, began stepping up, first on high-volume and then on extremely low/no-volume, on 13:05's 2.6K $0.6789 (1.6K)/50 (900)/75 and 13:09's 10K $0.6800 (5.3K)/$0.6775 (900)/$0.6800 (762)/$0.6775 (1K)/$0.6800 (800)/$0.6794 (300)/$0.6800 (800)/$0.6775. Volume dropped then. B/a at 13:17 was 8.2K:400 $0.6800/50. 13:18's 100 hit $0.685. B/a at 13:32 was 900:15.3K $0.6853/$0.69. The period ended on 13:33's 450 $0.6854.
13:34-14:50 began extremelylow/no-volume $0.6899/$0.69 on 13:34's 100 $0.69. B/a at 13:47 was 200:17.7K $0.6897/$0.69. Volume was interrupted by 14:00's 7.5K $0.69 (6.1K)/$0.6899. B/a at 14:02 was 1.3K:18.6K $0.6807/$0.69. Price was interrupted by 14:13's 200 $0.6858/99. B/a at 14:17 was 800:18K $0.6869/$0.69, 14:32 300:17.9K $0.6898/$0.69, 14:47 1.5K:17.9K $0.6808/$0.69. The period ended on 14:50's 100 $0.6899.
14:51-15:24, after one no-trades minutes, did a low/high-volume drop on 14:52's 100 $0.6893, 15:53-54's 900 $0.6890, 14:55's 1.2K $0.6890 (200)/99/$0.69/$0.6890, 14:57's 200 $0.6890, 14:58's 8K $0.6800/89 (100), and 14:59's 10K $0.68. Price began immediately recovering on 15:00's 200 $0.69, 15:01's 300 $0.6823 and 15:02's 2.3K $0.6899/$0.69 (1,15K). B/a at 15:02 was 1.1K:16.8K $0.6801/$0.69. The rest of the period traded extremely low/no-volume $0.6861/$0.69. B/a at 15:17 was 724:12.8K $0.67/9. The period ended on 15:24's 424 $0.6867.
15:25-15:59, after three no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.6843/50 after dropping on 15:28's 10.1K $0.6660/$0.67 (1.35K)/$0.686/$0.6701/0/$0.6861 (1.4K)/$0.67 (422)/$0.686 (200). B/a at 15:32 was 100:12.8K $0.67/9, 15:42 685:600 $0.67/$0.6850, 15:52 585:600 $0.67/$0.6850. The period and day ended on 15:59's $0.6850 (1.6K)/43 (1.6K)/50 (400)/43 (400) making the official close 15:59's last last 400 $0.6843 because there was no 16:00 MM closing trade).
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 8 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 54,399, 28.44% of day's volume, with a $0.6788 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 7 larger trades totaling 48,943, 25.59% of day's volume, with a $0.6798 VWAP. For the volume, the counts seem reasonable and the percentages normal. The VWAPs are both above the day's $0.6762. With no substantial evidence of "chunking" a lot of larger trades and the percentages of day's volume being nearer the low end of normal I suspect the larger trades were predominately taken by short-term traders and retail investors.
Note in the breakdown, and with no larger trades, the percent of day's volume and buy percentage movement in the two minutes ending 10:06. Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:04 26156 $0.6501 $0.6700 $17,418.05 $0.6659 13.67% 57.98% Incl 09:30 $0.6700 5,456 09:46 $0.6510 5,000
10:06 22413 $0.6699 $0.6700 $15,016.11 $0.6700 11.72% 77.39%
11:40 44500 $0.6670 $0.6780 $29,940.09 $0.6728 23.26% 67.43%
13:02 18017 $0.6749 $0.6800 $12,198.44 $0.6771 9.42% 68.58% Incl 13:02 $0.6775 10,000
13:33 15820 $0.6750 $0.6854 $10,750.28 $0.6795 8.27% 71.34%
14:50 14378 $0.6858 $0.6900 $9,918.75 $0.6899 7.52% 70.78% Incl 14:00 $0.6900 6,000
15:24 33781 $0.6800 $0.6900 $23,122.98 $0.6845 17.66% 64.61% Incl 14:58 $0.6800 7,943 14:59 10,000
15:16 $0.6900 4,087 5,913
15:59 14218 $0.6660 $0.6861 $9,619.57 $0.6766 7.43% 61.90%
There appears to be a reasonable correlation between buy percentage and VWAP movements. I'm still confounded by the buy percentages but maybe that's normal for a bullish market and it's just been so long since I've seen it that I can no longer recognize it.
I note the early large buy imbalances in the b/a quantities when b/a was down around $0.65/7 and that imbalance reversed when offer was up at $0.69. That raises the question of whether the behavior was price being supported and pushed higher, possibly to support $CPST ATM use, or was just normal short-term trader profit-taking or both.
Regardless, it's awfully near the known resistance of $0.70/2 and we broke the trend of declining volume with today's rise in volume.
On the traditional TA front, movements were: __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 1.52% -1.50% 0.73% 2.15% 60.08%
Prior 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -34.85%
The recent trend of improvement, generally, continues even as the low finally moved below $0.66. Offsetting that was the high approaching the known $0.70/2 area, below it only a penny now, on rising volume, although it's still a bit low. Volume is making the cupping pattern more completely this time though.
Yesterday I said { ... suggests we are unlikely to go lower very near-term. There's also the possibility, with quarterly reporting approaching, that this consolidation will not last much longer. Many folks trade approaching reporting. With things looking as they are right now I would guess that some movement higher is more likely than movement lower. } Today's behavior seems to support that and with the volume higher and the wider price range today I think there's a bit more left in the move up. Hitting $0.70/2 will be the most likely point or either pause or reversal prior to the quarterly report.
On my minimal chart I yesterday said { ... With volume falling, making the left portion of my beloved volume bar "cupping pattern", there's a decent chance we'll challenge it again and break above it as folks gain confidence price is less likely to move down much, if at all. } Today we challenged it again and closed above it on rising volume. In isolation this suggests more near-term upside is the most likely scenario.
I also said { The $0.685 high is less than a penny below the longer-term descending resistance (upper descending red line) that's about $0.6930 today. However, it's been a long time since we were near that and I don't know if it still applies. It did strongly demonstrate both resistance and support last time we were there though, so it's likely to be still in effect. } Today price moved to the line and retreated, indicating the resistance is still in plat. With rising volume today suggesting increasing upward momentum strength, there's an excellent chance that we will challenge it again and, since the line is declining, close above it sans an unexpected weakening in the price.
Trade range was only marginally below, and was mostly above, the rising slow EMA's $0.6571. The the rising fast EMA's $0.6744 is above the slow and today trade range was about 25% above the fast EMA.
BTW, the fast EMA is exactly at the descending channel's (descending blue lines) resistance. With both EMAs rising, rising volume on rising and spreading price range, and a higher high and close, there's an excellent likelihood that we'll be able to get above that resistance fairly quickly. The fly in that ointment is the close proximity of the known $0.70/2 resistance.
The concern still exists that we are now pushing the experimental 13-period Bollinger band upper limit - for the fourth day now. In the past this has not ended well most of the time. With the price up ~5% since 6/2 (12% since 5/31) though, that may not matter much. After all, there will be a reversal sometime and after a gain of 5% or 12% or so we can't really say this "ended badly".
Yesterday I noted { ... Can't say if it will make the cup or not, but with us at/approaching known resistance points and the volume volatility we've seen it may go ahead and complete it this time. } Yes! Today we have a well-formed volume-bar "cupping pattern" accompanying a rising price. This indicates there should be some more upside available.
I ended this section yesterday with { In aggregate, the third day of challenging the blue descending resistance (blue lines), again-falling volume, static OLHC, rising EMAs with the fast above the slow, and approaching quarterly report all make me think the most likely near-term behavior is to again challenge the descending channel's (blue lines) resistance. If volume comes in, or at least begins to rise, I think there's a good chance we'll get above it, and close there for at least a day. If there are few short-term traders (day, momo, swing) in a position to take profits we could also see a confirmation of a breakout. } I hold this assessment unchanged but for the fact we do have the rising volume and we have to add the potential for a slowing at the $0.70/2 known resistance. The challenge to the blue line will be unaffected though as it is below that point, being at $0.6744 today.
I also added, regarding suspicion of manipulation to support suspected ATM use, { Cowan & Co. are doing a fine job I guess ... Or we've a a revival of bullish sentiment going into the quarterly, but the volume action combination isn't strongly suggestive of that. } well, today the volume is more supportive of that (bullish sentiment) even if manipulation has been occurring.
Today I end with "the trend is your friend" and "don't fight the tape", regardless of cause. Until this stage ends the short-term traders can make money and the investors have tough decisions to make as we approach quarterly reporting.
On my one-year chart, for the fourth consecutive day we traded completely at and above (third day) the 10 and 20-day SMAs, both of which are rising. The 50 and 200 are still falling and all are still in order: 10 < 20 < 50 < 200. yesterday I said { It looks like the 10-day will get above the 20-day in just a couple days. } this would be fairly bullish. 6/100ths of a penny to go.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had a flat RSI (still just above neutral) and Williams %R (still overbought) while weakening occurred in accumulation/distribution (below neutral) and ADX-related. Improvement occurred in MFI (untrusted by me), momentum and full stochastic (overbought).
Today had improvement in accumulation/distribution (unusual), RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R ((overbought), and full stochastic (further overbought). Weakening occurred in momentum and ADX-related was flat in aggregate. Only accumulation/distribution is below neutral, ADX-related is at low readings and all others are above neutral.
Yesterday I noted { The change in the oscillators is not too significant, I think, in light of the reducing and low volume. So in aggregate I would read today's as no more negative than yesterday and even a bit more positive as two important ones, RSI and Williams %R, didn't weaken. } Today played out as suggested. Now with a couple oscillators in overbought condition it's time to keep a close eye open for any weakening as an early sign of the upward bias weakening.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6016 and $0.6903 ($0.6047 and $0.6819 yesterday), continued diverging with a falling lower limit and faster-rising upper limit, yielding a rising mid-point.
All in, as with yesterday, I have to conclude with { ... I have to read all this as positive moves more likely than negative here. "Market management", "ATM", and "TFH" regardless, the market can rise and folks will respond to the conventional TA and the approach of quarterly reporting. }
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, and both have what I interpret as good readings. Short percentage is only slightly below my desired range (needs re-check) and buy percentage ended at a value that seems a more reasonable, and possibly sustainable for a while, bullish reading.
The spread widened due to a lower low and higher high, which I suspect was aided by manipulation but it doesn't really matter now I think. It suggests movement is likely and in the current aggregate environment I think it suggests upward as most likely.
VWAP improved for the forth time in the last six days.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements improved to 16 negatives and 8 positives from 17 and 7 respectively. Change since 05/04 is -$0.0112, -1.62%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.0514%, -0.2146%, -0.2079%, -0.3689%, -0.6415%, -0.7567%, -0.8905%, -0.7494%, -0.6808%, and -0.6688%.
All in yesterday I said { ... The only weakness really is in the very low volume. If that is taken in context though - challenging resistances, price pushing the upper Bollinger band limit - the volume behavior is normal as indecision should rule the day.
Given all that I think this stuff suggests continued short-term consolidation with a mild positive bias. }
Nothing changes except the possibility of exiting short-term consolidation, to the upside, now appears. But know resistance is just above at $0.70/2. I suspect we'll test it before reversing.
Bill
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