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Re: Wild-bill post# 28161

Sunday, 06/11/2017 2:12:45 PM

Sunday, June 11, 2017 2:12:45 PM

Post# of 29204
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 06/07 2017 EOD

Conventional TA leaves me thinking near-term bullishness, against my better judgement and my TFH, and is supported, somewhat, by my unconventional stuff which leans me toward short-term consolidation with a mild positive bias. A word of explanation ...

I now have absolutely no doubt the market is being managed for now. I'm reasonably confident that this is in support of ATM use, due observed disconnect between various mechanical chicken tracks the market leaves in it's wake. Cowan & Co., who run the ATM facility for $CPST, are no slouches in knowledge of how to work the markets. Generally I know that this sort of stuff ends badly. But ...

Regardless of all that, folks will respond to the conventional TA, especially if they really know little about the company's history of failure to meet stated objectives repeatedly and the subsequent market's loss of confidence resulting in market apathy, and just see a string of recent positive PRs implying a larger, longer "pipeline". They may not realize that in the past a good portion of this pipeline is not shipped, for various reasons, during the anticipated time-frames. Adding in the the various short-term traders that respond purely to conventional TA and volume/price alerts issued by various entities and I have to assess the short-term as more positive than I would normally.

Today's trading was a big low-volume sideways in line with yesterday, as indicated by the OLHC movement and intra-day breakdown below. There was an oddity, detailed below, in the the larger trades.

There were no pre-market trades.

B/a just before open was 200:500 $0.6203/$0.6850.

09:30-10:03 opened the day with a 263 sell for $0.66 & $0.65 x 30, $0.66 x 8. B/a just after open (9:34 today) was 10.2K:178 $0.66/8. Then came 9:35's 10K $0.66, 9:44's 500 $0.6701, 9:47's 3K $0.6849, 9:49's b/a 1.2K:400 $0.6701/$0.6850, 9:53's 500 $0.6715, 9:54's 400 $0.6702/1, 9:57's b/a 1K:400 $0.6701/$0.6850, 9:59's 500 $0.6702/1, 10:00's 276 $0.6701, and the period ended on 10:03's 5.1K $0.6850 (1.5K)/$0.6761 (3.5K)/$0.6603.

10:04-11:12 began extremely low/no-volume (no trades 10:27-11:04) $0.6723/99 on 10:04's 100 $0.6723. B/a at 10:12 was 17.6K:1.3K $0.66/$0.6850, 10:39 17.6K:178 $0.66/8. Volume was interrupted by 11:05's, :06's and :08's 4K $0.6700/99 (3K), 4K $0.6700/14 (3K), 4K $0.672. The period ended on 11:12's 2.1K $0.6701.

11:13-12:11, during the initial two no-trades minutes had b/a at 11:13 of 100:1.3K $0.6601/$0.6850. Trade began extremely low.no-volume, with the usual minute volume spikes, $0.67/8 on 11:15's 200 $0.685. B/a at 11:32 was 200:3.1K $0.6604/$0.6850. Price was interrupted by 11:48's 3.4K $0.68 (2K)/$0.6702 (700)/$0.68 (300)/$0.6605 (200)/$0.68 (200). B/a at 11:49 was 200:200 $0.6604/$0.68, 12:03 200:100 $0.6604/$0.68. The period ended on 12:11's 100 $0.68.

12:12-13:43, during the initial forty-three no-trades minutes had b/a at 12:15 of 200:400 $0.6604/$0.68, 12:18 200:400 $0.6604/$0.68, 12:36 200:400 $0.6604/$0.68, and 12:48 200:400 $0.6604/$0.69. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.6659/$0.6725, with rising lows and more slowly falling highs, after 12:55's 952 $0.6702 (200)/$0.6663 (126)/2 (126)/3 (500). B/a at 13:02 was 200:400 $0.6604/$0.68. Volume was interrupted by 13:12's 3K $0.67. B/a at 13:17 was 1.2K:400 $0.6650/$0.68. Volume was interrupted by 13:21's 2.9K $0.67/$0.6659 (200). B/a at 13:33 was 200:900 $0.6697/$0.67. The period ended on 13:43's 100 $0.67.

13:44-16:00, after two no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume (e.g.no-trades 13:47-14:03, 14:50-15:11, 15:25-:41, and 15:46-:57) $0.6699/$0.67 after 13:46's 274 $0.6675/99. B/a at 13:47 was 300:800 $0.6658/$0.67 (bids rising), 14:02 800:1.4K $0.6699/$0.67. Volume was interrupted by 14:12's 3.2K $0.67 (1.2K)/$0.6699 (2K). B/a at 14:17 was 100:1.3K $0.6699/$0.67, 14:32 100:2.1K $0.6699/$0.67, 14:47 100:2.3K $0.6699/$0.67, 15:02 200:2K $0.6699/$0.67. Volume was interrupted by 15:15's 5.2K $0.67 and 15:17's 10.8K $0.67 (2.4K)/$0.6699 (2.4K)/ ... $0.6699/$0.67. B/a at 15:17 was 2K:1.2K $0.6699/$0.67, 15:32 800:1.6K $0.6699/$0.67. Volume was interrupted by 15:45's 23.8K $0.67. B/a at 15:47 was 200:600 $0.6699/$0.67. The day and period ended on 15:58's 500 $0.67, no 5:59 trades and 16:00's 252 sell for $0.6699.

There was one AH sell of 100 shares for $0.66.

Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 4 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 32,600, 27.28% of day's volume, with a $0.6698 VWAP. Even for the day's low volume the count seems low. The percentage is near the low end of what I think would be normal as one late-day "larger larger trade" added to the total. The VWAP is below the day's $0.6718, leading me to think some "good customer" got serviced here, especially when an oddity is noted ...

That oddity is the first three larger trades in the breakdown below total 16.3K with a VWAP of $0.66957. Then the only "larger larger trade" goes off at 15:45 and totals 16.3K with a price of $0.67. In that same minute another 7,527 shares traded also at $0.67. That 7K+ is quite close the very low volume of 7,452 shares traded 12:12-13:43 (an hour and thirty-one minutes), which had a VWAP of $0.6693.

Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:03 20529 $0.6600 $0.6850 $13,739.45 $0.6693 17.18% 38.44% Incl 09:35 $0.6600 6,500
11:12 15535 $0.6700 $0.6800 $10,448.57 $0.6726 13.00% 44.88% Incl 11:08 $0.6700 4,000
12:11 29888 $0.6605 $0.6850 $20,224.67 $0.6767 25.01% 54.27% Incl 12:01 $0.6800 5,800
13:43 7452 $0.6623 $0.6725 $4,987.33 $0.6693 6.24% 52.95%
16:00 45132 $0.6675 $0.6700 $30,237.45 $0.6700 37.77% 64.47% Incl 15:45 $0.6700 16,300
17:44 100 $0.6600 $0.6600 $66.00 $0.6600 0.08% 64.41%

How many days now do we see buy percentage strongly rising with VWAP not following suit? Quite a few recently if memory serves. Further, we have two of three days of falling volume combined with two of three days of rising VWAP All of this is incongruous.

My assessment of all this combined with the intra-day observations of b/a and trade behavior leads me to finally state, without reservation, that this market is being managed. I felt that way for several days but it wasn't a trend so I held my peace. Now it's a trend.

No good will come of it I think, other than for short-term traders that are in and out quickly.

Take a gander at the following

On the traditional TA front, movements were:

__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -34.85%
Prior 0.00% 2.33% 0.74% -0.01% -31.93%

This is the second consecutive day of the low set at the open, both days $0.66, the high at $0.685 and the close at $0.6699. Both days were falling, and low, volume. All this fits with yesterday's { All in it's looking like near-term consolidation with a possible positive bias. Some signs of weakening exist though and duration could change that positive bias to a negative bias. }

I also repeated the two day's back { ... The rate of volume rise declined for the second consecutive day though so it may be a short leg left. This seems especially likely considering the VWAP and buy percentage movements above } and added { It still matches if we just change from "VWAP ... movements above" to "lack of VWAP moves above". }

All that plus today's duplication of OLHC and very low volume lower than yesterday's suggests we are unlikely to go lower very near-term. There's also the possibility, with quarterly reporting approaching, that this consolidation will not last much longer. Many folks trade approaching reporting. With things looking as they are right now I would guess that some movement higher is more likely than movement lower.

On my minimal chart the most significant thing is this is the third consecutive day of challenging the the descending channel's resistance (descending blue lines) and failing to close above it. This likely accounts for the falling volume, which is a common occurrence when challenging resistance or support. With volume falling, making the left portion of my beloved volume bar "cupping pattern", there's a decent chance we'll challenge it again and break above it as folks gain confidence price is less likely to move down much, if at all.

The $0.685 high is less than a penny below the longer-term descending resistance (upper descending red line) that's about $0.6930 today. However, it's been a long time since we were near that and I don't know if it still applies. It did strongly demonstrate both resistance and support last time we were there though, so it's likely to be still in effect.

Trade range was only marginally below, and was mostly above, the rising fast EMA's $0.6651 which is above the rising slow EMA's $0.6531.

A concern exists that we are pushing the experimental 13-period Bollinger band upper limit - for the third day now. Yesterday I erroneously said it was the third day, but it was the second. In the past this has not ended well most of the time.

Yesterday I noted { The volume bars ceased making the desired cupping pattern without completing it or the rise it might have portended. } Today started the cupping again by having two consecutive days of declining volume. Can't say if it will make the cup or not, but with us at/approaching known resistance points and the volume volatility we've seen it may go ahead and complete it this time.

In aggregate, the third day of challenging the blue descending resistance (blue lines), again-falling volume, static OLHC, rising EMAs with the fast above the slow, and approaching quarterly report all make me think the most likely near-term behavior is to again challenge the descending channel's (blue lines) resistance. If volume comes in, or at least begins to rise, I think there's a good chance we'll get above it, and close there for at least a day. If there are few short-term traders (day, momo, swing) in a position to take profits we could also see a confirmation of a breakout.

Golly! All that goes against my grain for this symbol. It's tough trying to be impartial and tougher ignoring my TFH that keeps yelling "ATM! ATM!". It's probably right, but even if correct the ATM use seems to make no difference, other than the apparent manipulation to push price range up.

Cowan & Co. are doing a fine job I guess ... Or we've a a revival of bullish sentiment going into the quarterly, but the volume action combination isn't strongly suggestive of that.

On my one-year chart, for the third consecutive day we traded completely at and above (second day) the 10 and 20-day SMAs, both of which are rising. The 50 and 200 are still falling and all are still in order: 10 < 20 < 50 < 200. It looks like the 10-day will get above the 20-day in just a couple days.

Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in accumulation/distribution (below neutral) and RSI (above neutral). Improvement occurred in MFI (above neutral and untrusted by me), momentum (above neutral), Williams %R (in overbought), and full stochastic (just below overbought). ADX-related was flat and below neutral.

Today had a flat RSI (still just above neutral) and Williams %R (still overbought) while weakening occurred in accumulation/distribution (below neutral) and ADX-related. Improvement occurred in MFI (untrusted by me), momentum and full stochastic (overbought).

The change in the oscillators is not too significant, I think, in light of the reducing and low volume. So in aggregate I would read today's as no more negative than yesterday and even a bit more positive as two important ones, RSI and Williams %R, didn't weaken.

The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6047 and $0.6819 ($0.6060 and $0.6781 yesterday), continued diverging with a falling lower limit and faster-rising upper limit, yielding a rising mid-point.

All in, against my better judgement due to my certainty of market management, I have to read all this as positive moves more likely than negative here. "Market management", "ATM", and "TFH" regardless, the market can rise and folks will respond to the conventional TA and the approach of quarterly reporting.



Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction - good! - and the buy percentage is excellent after having risen three of the last five days. The short percentage is right at the upper end of my desired range (needs re-check) but is not as much a concern as if the buy percentage was in a more normal range. elevated buy percentages should engender elevated short sales.

The spread remains in a range close to what I think would suggest consolidation.

The VWAP declined for only the second time in the last five days. That improvement in behavior has begun to appear in the rolling 24-day averages of the changes.

The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, held steady after yesterday having improved to 17 negatives and 7 positives. Change since 05/03 is -$0.0387, -5.45%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.2146%, -0.2079%, -0.3689%, -0.6415%, -0.7567%, -0.8905%, -0.7494%, -0.6808%, -0.6688%, and -0.7140%.

All in, haven't seen this much positive in a while. The high buy percentage with a short percentage within the desired range, albeit the high end, is a positive indication. The spread does nothing to counter, nor to support, the positive take-away from those two items. The VWAP weakening is a mild negative offset, I think, by the recent improvement in the rolling averages of the VWAP changes.

The only weakness really is in the very low volume. If that is taken in context though - challenging resistances, price pushing the upper Bollinger band limit - the volume behavior is normal as indecision should rule the day.

Given all that I think this stuff suggests continued short-term consolidation with a mild positive bias.

Bill

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