Replies to post #28135 on Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[Wild-bill]

Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 05/24 2017 EOD

My overall assessment is we are likely entering another short-term consolidation at a lower level. There's still a good possibility that we'll resume the leg lower though as several positives from yesterday dissipated and were replaced by several negative indications.

My overall assessment was influenced by the recent short interest report referenced below.

Well, back to the normal behavior, sort of.

The day opened "high", but not too high at $0.65 considering yesterday's manipulated close of $0.6499, and then hit the day's high, $0.6596 on 1.1K shares at 09:37. Of course, the day's low was then set on 9:42's 3.7K that hit $0.6308. Then came the usual flattish sideways low $0.630x/99 through 10:58, a really flat $0.6391/$0.64 through ~11:40, and the usual step up. to as high as $0.65 and drop back down to $0.639 to go sideways $0.639/$0.6436 (mostly $0.639x) through 13:59. Then the set-up for the close had to begin, of course and through 14:37 price got up to $0.65 again. Trade then went flattish $0.6430/64, with help from an outsize 17K bid at $0.6430, to close on 15:59's 900 shares because the was no MM 16:00 closing trade. The close was $0.6430.

All this was on extremely low/no-volume with the usual 1-3 minute volume spikes that usually moved things a bit.

There were no pre-market trades.

B/a just before open was 100:900 $0.6308/$0.70.

09:30-10:02 opened the day with a 1,619 buy for $0.65. B/a just after open was 3.5K:50 $0.6500/50 (offers backed by presented 1.2K $0.6596). Then came 9:35's 100 $0.65, 9:36's 100 $0.6501, 9:37's 1.1K $0.6501 (500)/00/96/00, 9:38's 250 $0.6500/94, 9:39's b/a of 2.9K:50 $0.6500/50 (offers backed by presented 4.2K $0.6589), 9:42's 3.7K $0.6500 (2.9K)/$0.6311/08/$0.65, 9:43's b/a 800:100 $0.6308/$0.65, 9:51's 4.7K $0.6359/98/59/98 (3.7K)/20/59, 9:52's 400 $0.6359/98 (100)/59, 9:56's b/a 4.5K:600 $0.6320/98, 9:57's 8.6K $0.6320 (1K)/23 (1K)/28 (1K)/20 (4.5K)/08 (1K)/63 (100), 9:59's 1.4K $0.6388 (1K)/08/48, and the period ended on 10:02's 250 $0.6331.

10:03-10:43, during the first thirteen no-trades minutes, had b/a at 10:05 of 600:800 $0.6308/61, 10:15 900:800 $0.6308/57. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.6320/34 on 10:16's 1K $0.6333 (500)/14. B/a at 10:20 was 600:800 $0.6308/57. Volume was interrupted, and range expanded, by 10:29's 2K $0.6334/57 (700)/99 (100)/43 (800). Range became $0.6312/43. B/a at 10:36 was 7K:361 $0.6310/43 (bids bouncing up/down w/$0.6311 x 900). Volume was interrupted by 10:40's 1.2K $0.6312. The period ended on 10:43's 261 $0.6312/55.

10:44-11:10, after one no-trades minute, began an extremely low/no-volume rise from $0.6311/55 on 10:45's 3.1K $0.6399 (3K)/13. B/a at 10:45 was 817:1.3K $0.6311/99. 10:58's 600 hit $0.6313/99. 11:06's 619 hit $0.6391/95. B/a at 11:09 was 1K:700 $0.6390/9. The period ended when 11:10's 800 hit $0.6395/99 (600)/91.

11:11-11:48, during the initial six no-trades minutes had b/a at 11:11 of 1.1K:200 $0.6390.$0.64. Trade began another extremely low/no-volume slow rise from $0.6391/8 on 11:17's 100 $0.6391 and 11:22's 100 $0.6398. B/a at 11:27 was 500:200 $0.6396/$0.64. 11:31 began doing $0.6396/$0.64. B/a at 11:33 was 500:5.4K $0.6395/$0.65. 11:43's 100 hit $0.6434. The period ended on 11:48's 4.2K $0.65.

11:49-12:57, after one no-trades minutes, began an extremely low/no-volume decline from $0.6395/$0.6495 on 11:50's 100 $0.6395. B/a at 12:01 was 500:1.6K $0.6450/86. At 12:02 highs were at $0.6481, 12:05 $0.6460. 12:21's 2.9K did $0.6450/$0.6393 (900)/90 (1.1K)/$0.6410 (350)/$0.6390 (450). B/a at 12:28 was 750:3.1K $0.6390/$0.6424 (offers falling). At 12:30 highs were $0.6403. B/a at 12:33 was 750:2.6K $0.6390/$0.6402 (offers falling). The period ended on 12:57's 300 $0.6394/90 (150 ea.).

12:58-13:33, after one no-trades minute, did a quick pop up on 12:59's 1.9K $0.6392/4 (1.7K)/6 followed by an extremely low/no-volume decline. B/a at 13:04 was 500:2.2K $0.6400/30. 13:11's 200 hit $0.6401. B/a at 13:15 was 500:2.1K $0.6400/2. 13:19's 300 hit $0.64, 13:21's 200 hit $0.6396, 13:25's 2K volume interruption hit $0.6391 (400)/2 (1.6K). B/a at 13:27 was 600:700 $0.6390/1. The period ended on 13:33's 100 $0.6391.

13:34-14:26, during twenty-six no-trades minutes had b/a at 13:37 of 600:400 $0.6390/1 and 13:47 600:200 $0.6390/1. Trade began mostly extremely low/no-volume after 14:00's 1.1K $0.6451 (1K)/20, 14:07's 3K $0.6419 and 14:09's 2.5K $0.6403/16/21/51. Trade range became $0.6432/51 on extremely low/no-volume. B/a at 14:02 was 600:1.2K $0.6390/$0.6440. The period ended on 14:26's 100 $0.6432.

14:27-16:00 during the initial nine no-trades minutes had b/a at 14:32 of 17K:200 $0.6430/33 (someone wants to set a floor? That's about 1/4 of all volume to this point!). Trade then did 14:36's 6K $0.6433/41/52/41/52/$0.65 (5K), 14:37's 10.7K $0.6439/48/65/$0.65/$0.6465/79/$0.65 (7.2K). That began extremely low/no-volume $0.6430/65 (mostly near the low), on 14:38's 641 $0.6430. B/a at 14:45 was 17K:400 $0.6430/79, 15:02 17K:1.6K $0.6430/99, 15:17 17K:1.6K $0.6430/98, 15:32 8.6K:1.6K $0.6430/97 (someone stepped away from that 17K $0.6430[?), 15:47 8.6K:800 $0.6430/74. The period and day ended on 15:59's 900 $0.6430/65/30/65/30/31/30 (300) and set the official close at $0.6430 because there was no MM 16:00 closing trade - only odd-lots $0.6498 x 26, $0.65 x 22 and they are not allowed to be official anything).

There were no AH trades.

Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 3 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 17,200, 18.31% of day's volume, with a $0.6480 VWAP. Even considering the very low volume today, the count is low. The percentage of day's volume is also very low. The VWAP is above the day's $0.6421. This makes me think either retail short-term traders or retail investors took these larger trades. However, considering the Short Report 05/15/17 483,129 +14.23%, it may be that some shorters were doing covering buys too. That period occurred when VWAPs were as high as $0.7224 and moving towards the period's ending VWAP of $0.6575, likely aided by the short selling.

This covering buy shorters thesis may be supported by today buy percentage and VWAP behavior seen in the following intra-day breakdown.

 Ending  Period  Period  Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End 
 Period  Volume     Low    High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~% 
  10:02   22230 $0.6308 $0.6596    $14,204.37 $0.6390 23.67% 32.94% 
  10:43    4984 $0.6312 $0.6399     $3,156.08 $0.6332  5.31% 35.42% 
  11:10    5751 $0.6311 $0.6399     $3,672.95 $0.6387  6.12% 41.25% 
  11:48    6176 $0.6391 $0.6500     $3,994.20 $0.6467  6.58% 48.03% 
  12:57   11039 $0.6390 $0.6495     $7,076.73 $0.6411 11.75% 43.65% 
  13:33   12000 $0.6391 $0.6436     $7,693.83 $0.6412 12.78% 47.50% Incl 13:03 $0.6432 5,000 
  14:26    7844 $0.6403 $0.6451     $5,042.16 $0.6428  8.35% 52.38% 
  16:00   21689 $0.6430 $0.6500    $14,053.12 $0.6479 23.09% 58.13% Incl 14:36 $0.6500 5,000 14:37 7,200

Given the market apathy and the short interest report mentioned above, I suspect the general trend of improvement seen in both buy percentage and VWAP, which are reasonably well correlated, is mostly shorters doing covering buys, along with some MMs doing their normal short and cover routine both inter and intra-day.

With that thought and the day's volume down ~32% and at a very low level, I would not read any of this as a bullish indication. Rather it's an indication, I think, of shorters continuing to lock in profits in preparation for any future swing upward, at which time they can short again, sans a major positive catalyst.

On the traditional TA front, movements were:

          __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_ 
 Today      1.56%   0.13%   0.46%  -1.06% -32.33% 
 Prior     -5.88%   0.00%  -3.44%   3.16% -45.96%

Viewing these in light of the prior above considerations, I think the OLH improvements should be ignored, especially if we also factor in the manipulation that evidence has been suggesting is occurring for a while now. The close, which was not from the market-maker, and therefore likely a more reliable sentiment indication than we've been seeing, is probably reliable here, as is the volume decline. The close's suggested downward move is moderated by the volume, which suggests no strength in the down direction. This would fit with my near-term "sag" or "grind lower" assessment voiced yesterday in the top of the post summary.

On my minimal chart, the most significant thing is we had no apparent manipulation of the close, although intra-day there was the normal push up, beginning today about 14:00, to produce a better close did occur. It was a failure though as big (very relative here) volume and a price spike at 14:36-:37 ate all the velocity and price fell back to the prior levels and it was a very flattish market from then into the close.

Another significant thing is that we traded almost completely above the former descending short-term resistance (falling orange line) and closed above it for the second day. Conventional TA says this confirms a breakout from that trend. I can't disagree but I moderate my optimism about that with the volume and the fact that we could just ride the line lower, giving a "grind lower". I can't yet guess if that is likely, but the longer-term and recent behavior would suggest it is quite likely.

The slow EMA continued to decline, and the fast EMA, which yesterday had ticked upward (thanks to that phony close), also declined, more slowly than the slow EMA, and remained well below the slow. The gap from the slow down to the fast is now $0.0184 (was $0.0201).

Trading range was fairly well centered on the fast EMA and the $0.6596 high approached the slow EMA of $0.6626.

For the third day the low is "pushing" the experimental 13-period lower Bollinger band limit.

The close was again above both the descending short-term resistance and the $0.64 which had been providing some support. This suggests at least a temporary reprieve from the down leg which had begun. That fits with my "grind lower" thesis, which may ultimately prove incorrect if we don't go to ~$0.60.

On my one-year chart, for the eighth consecutive day we did not trade completely below all SMAs, all of which are falling with them all in order, 10 < 20 < 50 < 200. Our high penetrated, for the eighth consecutive day, the falling 10-day SMA's $0.6488. Yesterday after six days of trying to get above the 10-day SMA our manipulated close got it done. Today's apparently non-manipulated close was below the 10-day SMA.

Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in accumulation/distribution, RSI (exited oversold), MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R (exited oversold), full stochastic (still oversold), and ADX-related (marginally). Everything was still below neutral.

Today had weakening in accumulation/distribution, RSI, momentum, and Williams %R. Improvement occurred in MFI (untrusted by me), full stochastic (still oversold) and ADX-related (marginal). Everything is still below neutral.

Seeing so many switch so quickly from improving to weakening is not a good sign. It may be related to the low and declining volume though.

The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6346 and $0.6686 ($0.6325 and $0.6764 yesterday), continued converging as the lower limit rises while the upper limit declines. The mid-point is falling due to the upper limit's rate of decline being higher than the lower limit's rate of rise.

All in, even if I bought into the buy percentage as being a real sentiment indication the conventional TA stuff would outweigh that. The best I could go with is we again go into a short-term consolidation. The next best would be we start riding the short-term former resistance lower. The worst would be we break back below the now-support descending orange line.

For the moment I consider the latter the least likely. For me it's a toss-up between the other two. Yeah, I know I didn't consider a reversal. It's two early for that unless one discounts everything but the buy percentage behavior and I'm discounting that one, not the others.



Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, but both are at levels that are not indicative of near-term improvement as most likely. The short percentage appears to me to be a result of the low volume - no regular retail investors/traders were in the market meaning the short volume, which wasn't all that high, had an outsize effect.

The buy percentage was discussed above and past experience suggests that these sorts of readings do not produce a follow-on positive behavior.

The spread expanded marginally, due exclusively to the early few minutes having a very high high and a very low low. It's still not that wide though and is in a range that might suggest consolidation, although it's a bit to the high side for that and could as easily be read as suggesting near-term movement is likely. But with the way it was produced and no intra-day supporting behavior I think not.

The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, after one day at 18 negatives and 6 positives, returned to 17 and 7 respectively, making it 7 of 8 days at 17 and 7. Change since 04/20 is -$0.1225, -16.02%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.7140%, -0.8520%, -0.8128%, -0.9712%, -0.8471%, -0.9736%, -0.9789%, -0.8459%, -0.6735%, and -0.6459%.

All in, I think consolidation seems most likely but I can't find anything to hang my hat on to suggest a bias in either direction.

Bill