Wednesday, May 24, 2017 2:07:25 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 05/23 2017 EOD
My best case is that the chartists believe what they see and we get a little sideways action with some volume improvement. But you know I believe my unconventional stuff more. That's telling me continued weakening and low volume. It's not suggesting a big move near-term, but more of a grind or sag near-term.
Unlike many days, today there was apparently no attempt to manipulate a higher open and early price range. Also unlike many days, the early volume was extremely low/no-volume through 11:16. Thereafter was the same but that's not unusual at all.
At EOD though we got the usual behavior with a push up in the last 13 minutes, on little volume of course, to trade up from $0.63 and get a manipulated 16:00 close of $0.6499, ~3.2% above the 15:59 trades. Moreover, it was 2.20% above the day's $0.6359 VWAP. I don't care who you are, that's funny right there! Yep, make an "up" day out of a dog day.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was
09:30-10:44 opened the day with a 331 sell for $0.64 & $0.64 x 1.4K, $0.63 x 200, $0.6550 x 300. B/a just after open was 11.2K:400 $0.63/$0.6599. Then came 9:32's 450 $0.6307/00/$0.6550 (100), 9:34's b/a 600:300 $0.64/$0.6599, 9:38's 600 $0.6566 (500)/$0.64, 9:39's 100 $0.6550, 9:41's b/a 600:300 $0.64/$0.6599, 9:49's b/a 600:1.3K $0.64/$0.6570, 9:50's 2.8K $0.6400/10 (650)/00/70/$0.65/$0.6301/$0.6499/$0.63, 9:51's 300 $0.65/$0.6499, 9:52's b/a 11K:200 $0.63/$0.6499, 9:59's 1.2K $0.6499/00/99 (800)/$0.63/5, no trades 10:00-:23, 10:05's b/a 500:1.1K $0.6302/$0.6499, 10:24's 100 $0.6499, 10:32's b/a 100:1.1K $0.6400/98, 10:36's 2.2K $0.6499 (1.7K)/$0.6305/$0.6499 (300)/$0.6305, 10:37's 100 $0.6499. The period ended on 10:44's 2K $0.6306/5/$0.6489/$0.6310/$0.6498/88/$0.6310/$0.6404.
10:45-12:18, during the initial fourteen no-trades minutes had b/a at 10:47 of 85:200 $0.6400/98 (bids backed by [b[presented 500 $0.6310). Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.6312/$0.6478, with slowly falling lows and rapidly falling highs, on 10:59's 100 $0.6312. B/a at 11:07 was 85:600 $0.6400/98 (bids backed by [b[presented 500 $0.6310). Volume was interrupted by 11:17's 9K $0.64 (7K)/$0.6315 (800)/10/93/96/11. B/a at 11:28 was 100:300 $0.6310/70, 11:34 200:1.1K $0.6310/47. Volume was interrupted by 11:42's 1.8K $0.6339 (1.6K)/10. B/a at 11:47 was 400:1.5K $0.6310/$0.6487. Volume was interrupted by 11:47's 1K $0.6310 (100)/23/27 (600). Price was interrupted by 11:48's 100 $0.$0.6487. B/a at 12:02 was 400:1.8K $0.6310/$0.6487. Price was interrupted by 12:02's 366 $0.6487 (100)/34. B/a at 12:17 was 400:500 $0.6311/$0.6486. The period ended on 12:18's 100 $0.6314.
12:19-12:38, after two no-trades minutes, began an extremely low/no-volume (through 12:31) sag lower on 12:21's 100 $0.6311. B/a at 12:33 was 400:1.2K $0.6302/90. The real move lower came on 12:32-:38's aggregate 28.5K that took lows down to $0.63 and highs to $0.6314. The period ended on 12:38's 1.6K $0.63.
12:39-13:22 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6300/58, with highs dropping to $0.6335, on 12:39's 200 $0.63. B/a at 12:47 was 7.2K:400 $0.6300/36, 13:02 7.1K:500 $0.6300/30 (bids rattling $0.6300/1/2), 13:18 100:300 $0.6301/35. The period ended on 13:22's 540 $0.6335/27/35.
13:23-14:00 began an extremely low/no-volume rise on 13:23's 1.2K $0.6344/$0.64 (1.1K). B/a at 13:32 was 2K:1.8K $0.6327/$0.64. The next high was set when volume was interrupted by 13:40's 8.3K $0.6356/$0.64 (700)/$0.6389/75/$0.64 (667)/$0.6389/$0.64 (5.6K)/01 (700)/87. B/a at 13:47 was 100:2K $0.6350/$0.6487. The period ended on 14:00's 10.1K $0.6401/87 (10K blk).
14:01-15:00 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6312/$0.6407, with slowly falling highs, on 14:01's 2.4K $0.6350/33/27 (1.3K)/$0.6487/07. B/a at 14:02 was 300:700 $0.6327/$0.6487. By 14:13 highs were down to $0.64. B/a at 14:17 was 1.9K:800 $0.6312/$0.6487. Price was interrupted by 14:25's 313 $0.6399/$0.6487/$0.6312. B/a at 14:32 was 1.9K:800 $0.6312/$0.6487, 14:47 1.5K:800 $0.6313/$0.6487. The period ended on 15:00's 100 $0.6313.
15:01-15:47, during the initial two no-trades minutes had b/a at 15:02 of 1.7K:2K $0.6312/$0.6485. Trade began, through 15:22, extremely low/no-volume $0.6300/12 on 15:03's 6.5K $0.6312/15 (1K)/29 (900)/00 (700)/12 (1.7K)/00/01/00. B/a at 15:17 was 11K:900 $0.6300/12. At 15:23 trade became mixed-volume, mostly very low-volume, $0.6300/11. B/a at 15:32 was 11.1K:900 $0.6300/12, 15:47 11.8K:1.5K $0.6300/12. The period ended on 15:47's 900 $0.63.
15:48-16:00 began the usual low-volume EOD volatility and manipulated (see the closing trade price) push up on 15:48's 2.2K $0.6300/12 (847)/06/12 (500)/06/12 (400). 15:58's 800 did $0.6300 (400)/99 (100/$0.64 (100) and the period and day ended on 15:59's 1.5K $0.63 and 16:00's 200 $0.6499, ~3.2% above all the 15:59 trades.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 6 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 40,200, 28.96% of day's volume, with a $0.6375 VWAP. For the day's volume the count and percentage both seem normal. The VWAP is above the day's $0.6359. My guess would be retailers and/or shorters took most of these shares.
Correlation between movements in buy percentage and VWAP was reasonable.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Beyond that, it's obvious we didn't have a manipulated open today and the intra-day behavior, breakdown and VWAP reflect the results of that. One good thing is the volume movement suggests there's no enthusiasm in the move to the down (or up if you believe the close) side yet.
On my minimal chart the most significant thing was the manipulated close (see comments above) managed a close again above the descending short-term resistance (descending orange line) and $0.64, offering the chartists the hope of a break out back above both if it confirms tomorrow. Trading range was about centered on, and wrapped around, the short-term descending resistance.
The slow EMA continued to decline, but the fast EMA ticked upward (thanks to that phony close) and remained well below the slow. The gap from the slow down to the fast is now $0.0201 (was $0.0247). The rate of descent for the slow EMA decelerated marginally.
Today's manipulated close caused price range to penetrate above the fast EMA but price never approached the slow EMA.
For the second day the low was "pushing" the experimental 13-period lower Bollinger band limit.
Yesterday I iterated my though that we had exited consolidation and begun a down leg, but one more day of confirmation of the break of the two supports was needed.
Thanks to the manipulated close, we didn't get the confirmation as the close was above both the descending short-term resistance and the $0.64 which had been providing some support.
The fly in all this ointment is that volume was falling and was extremely low, suggesting no strength to this "up" day.
On my one-year chart, for the seventh consecutive day we did not trade completely below all SMAs, all of which are falling with them all in order, 10 < 20 < 50 < 200. Our high penetrated, for the seventh consecutive day, the falling 10-day SMA's $0.6505. After six days of trying to get above the 10-day SMA our manipulated close got it done.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement only in MFI (untrusted by me) while all others weakened. RSI, Williams %R and full stochastic all re-entered oversold. Everything was below neutral.
Today had improvement in accumulation/distribution, RSI (exited oversold), MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R (exited oversold), full stochastic (still oversold), and ADX-related (marginally). Everything is still below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6325 and $0.6764 ($0.6312 and $0.6823 yesterday), continued converging as the lower limit rises while the upper limit declines. The mid-point is falling due to the upper limit's rate of decline being higher than the lower limit's rate of rise.
All in, knowing the close, which affects a lot of the oscillators as well as chartists, was manipulated higher, my natural inclination is to call this a head fake occurrence. But with low volume and continued manipulation, aided by MMs who want to make money, it's entirely possible that this will not continue the leg lower but will make a leg up, or at least hold sideways, if one uses the traditional TA tools.
For me, the intra-day behavior and breakdown where I see VWAP and buy percentage movements carries more weight though. So I'm guessing a short-term appearance of strength in price, but not volume will appear as the manipulators work their magic and draw some folks in, but it will be short-lived, weak in the gains and ultimately begin sinking again. All this is expected to occur in a short time-frame, a week or less?
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved independently with short percentage flat and buy percentage up. Short percentage is again just below the top of my desired range (needs re-check) while buy percentage is still well below the level needed to even have a chance of holding price steady.
The spread is just above consolidation levels, thanks to the artificial intra-day high and the close mentioned above. I think it's not suggesting any near-term big move, but that doesn't preclude that action, it just doesn't suggest it as likely.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, after holding for six days at 17 negatives and 7 positives, deteriorated to 18 and 6 respectively. Change since 04/19 is -$0.1469, -18.77%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.8520%, -0.8128%, -0.9712%, -0.8471%, -0.9736%, -0.9789%, -0.8459%, -0.6735%, -0.6459%, and -0.7513%.
All in, consolidation at best and mild weakening most likely near-term.
Bill
My best case is that the chartists believe what they see and we get a little sideways action with some volume improvement. But you know I believe my unconventional stuff more. That's telling me continued weakening and low volume. It's not suggesting a big move near-term, but more of a grind or sag near-term.
Unlike many days, today there was apparently no attempt to manipulate a higher open and early price range. Also unlike many days, the early volume was extremely low/no-volume through 11:16. Thereafter was the same but that's not unusual at all.
At EOD though we got the usual behavior with a push up in the last 13 minutes, on little volume of course, to trade up from $0.63 and get a manipulated 16:00 close of $0.6499, ~3.2% above the 15:59 trades. Moreover, it was 2.20% above the day's $0.6359 VWAP. I don't care who you are, that's funny right there! Yep, make an "up" day out of a dog day.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was
09:30-10:44 opened the day with a 331 sell for $0.64 & $0.64 x 1.4K, $0.63 x 200, $0.6550 x 300. B/a just after open was 11.2K:400 $0.63/$0.6599. Then came 9:32's 450 $0.6307/00/$0.6550 (100), 9:34's b/a 600:300 $0.64/$0.6599, 9:38's 600 $0.6566 (500)/$0.64, 9:39's 100 $0.6550, 9:41's b/a 600:300 $0.64/$0.6599, 9:49's b/a 600:1.3K $0.64/$0.6570, 9:50's 2.8K $0.6400/10 (650)/00/70/$0.65/$0.6301/$0.6499/$0.63, 9:51's 300 $0.65/$0.6499, 9:52's b/a 11K:200 $0.63/$0.6499, 9:59's 1.2K $0.6499/00/99 (800)/$0.63/5, no trades 10:00-:23, 10:05's b/a 500:1.1K $0.6302/$0.6499, 10:24's 100 $0.6499, 10:32's b/a 100:1.1K $0.6400/98, 10:36's 2.2K $0.6499 (1.7K)/$0.6305/$0.6499 (300)/$0.6305, 10:37's 100 $0.6499. The period ended on 10:44's 2K $0.6306/5/$0.6489/$0.6310/$0.6498/88/$0.6310/$0.6404.
10:45-12:18, during the initial fourteen no-trades minutes had b/a at 10:47 of 85:200 $0.6400/98 (bids backed by [b[presented 500 $0.6310). Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.6312/$0.6478, with slowly falling lows and rapidly falling highs, on 10:59's 100 $0.6312. B/a at 11:07 was 85:600 $0.6400/98 (bids backed by [b[presented 500 $0.6310). Volume was interrupted by 11:17's 9K $0.64 (7K)/$0.6315 (800)/10/93/96/11. B/a at 11:28 was 100:300 $0.6310/70, 11:34 200:1.1K $0.6310/47. Volume was interrupted by 11:42's 1.8K $0.6339 (1.6K)/10. B/a at 11:47 was 400:1.5K $0.6310/$0.6487. Volume was interrupted by 11:47's 1K $0.6310 (100)/23/27 (600). Price was interrupted by 11:48's 100 $0.$0.6487. B/a at 12:02 was 400:1.8K $0.6310/$0.6487. Price was interrupted by 12:02's 366 $0.6487 (100)/34. B/a at 12:17 was 400:500 $0.6311/$0.6486. The period ended on 12:18's 100 $0.6314.
12:19-12:38, after two no-trades minutes, began an extremely low/no-volume (through 12:31) sag lower on 12:21's 100 $0.6311. B/a at 12:33 was 400:1.2K $0.6302/90. The real move lower came on 12:32-:38's aggregate 28.5K that took lows down to $0.63 and highs to $0.6314. The period ended on 12:38's 1.6K $0.63.
12:39-13:22 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6300/58, with highs dropping to $0.6335, on 12:39's 200 $0.63. B/a at 12:47 was 7.2K:400 $0.6300/36, 13:02 7.1K:500 $0.6300/30 (bids rattling $0.6300/1/2), 13:18 100:300 $0.6301/35. The period ended on 13:22's 540 $0.6335/27/35.
13:23-14:00 began an extremely low/no-volume rise on 13:23's 1.2K $0.6344/$0.64 (1.1K). B/a at 13:32 was 2K:1.8K $0.6327/$0.64. The next high was set when volume was interrupted by 13:40's 8.3K $0.6356/$0.64 (700)/$0.6389/75/$0.64 (667)/$0.6389/$0.64 (5.6K)/01 (700)/87. B/a at 13:47 was 100:2K $0.6350/$0.6487. The period ended on 14:00's 10.1K $0.6401/87 (10K blk).
14:01-15:00 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6312/$0.6407, with slowly falling highs, on 14:01's 2.4K $0.6350/33/27 (1.3K)/$0.6487/07. B/a at 14:02 was 300:700 $0.6327/$0.6487. By 14:13 highs were down to $0.64. B/a at 14:17 was 1.9K:800 $0.6312/$0.6487. Price was interrupted by 14:25's 313 $0.6399/$0.6487/$0.6312. B/a at 14:32 was 1.9K:800 $0.6312/$0.6487, 14:47 1.5K:800 $0.6313/$0.6487. The period ended on 15:00's 100 $0.6313.
15:01-15:47, during the initial two no-trades minutes had b/a at 15:02 of 1.7K:2K $0.6312/$0.6485. Trade began, through 15:22, extremely low/no-volume $0.6300/12 on 15:03's 6.5K $0.6312/15 (1K)/29 (900)/00 (700)/12 (1.7K)/00/01/00. B/a at 15:17 was 11K:900 $0.6300/12. At 15:23 trade became mixed-volume, mostly very low-volume, $0.6300/11. B/a at 15:32 was 11.1K:900 $0.6300/12, 15:47 11.8K:1.5K $0.6300/12. The period ended on 15:47's 900 $0.63.
15:48-16:00 began the usual low-volume EOD volatility and manipulated (see the closing trade price) push up on 15:48's 2.2K $0.6300/12 (847)/06/12 (500)/06/12 (400). 15:58's 800 did $0.6300 (400)/99 (100/$0.64 (100) and the period and day ended on 15:59's 1.5K $0.63 and 16:00's 200 $0.6499, ~3.2% above all the 15:59 trades.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 6 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 40,200, 28.96% of day's volume, with a $0.6375 VWAP. For the day's volume the count and percentage both seem normal. The VWAP is above the day's $0.6359. My guess would be retailers and/or shorters took most of these shares.
It didn't take many shares, but it did take a long time, for a non-manipulated opening and early trading to begin the typical pattern of falling buy percentages and VWAPs. I guess that's better than beginning that after higher volume manipulated opens and early trading. It allows the market's true sentiment to show through.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:44 11997 $0.6300 $0.6566 $7,723.06 $0.6437 8.64% 53.26%
12:18 19852 $0.6310 $0.6487 $12,648.20 $0.6371 14.30% 59.42% Incl 11:17 $0.6400 6,000
12:38 29265 $0.6300 $0.6486 $18,557.64 $0.6341 21.08% 46.52% Incl 12:37 $0.6300 6,200
13:22 3740 $0.6300 $0.6358 $2,365.27 $0.6324 2.69% 48.19%
14:00 21267 $0.6328 $0.6487 $13,699.02 $0.6441 15.32% 51.16% Incl 13:40 $0.6400 5,000 14:00 $0.6487 10,000
15:00 13047 $0.6312 $0.6487 $8,264.93 $0.6335 9.40% 44.95%
15:47 28499 $0.6300 $0.6329 $17,967.80 $0.6305 20.53% 39.76% Incl 15:23 $0.6311 5,000 15:32 $0.6300 8,000
16:00 9401 $0.6300 $0.6499 $5,939.95 $0.6318 6.77% 38.37%
Correlation between movements in buy percentage and VWAP was reasonable.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
First, regarding the close, note it was $0.6499, ~3.2% above the 15:59 trades and 2.2% above the day's $0.6359 VWAP. I don't care who you are, that's funny right there! Yep, make an "up" day out of a dog day.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -5.88% 0.00% -3.44% 3.16% -45.96%
Prior -0.66% -1.56% -0.66% -3.08% 31.19%
Beyond that, it's obvious we didn't have a manipulated open today and the intra-day behavior, breakdown and VWAP reflect the results of that. One good thing is the volume movement suggests there's no enthusiasm in the move to the down (or up if you believe the close) side yet.
On my minimal chart the most significant thing was the manipulated close (see comments above) managed a close again above the descending short-term resistance (descending orange line) and $0.64, offering the chartists the hope of a break out back above both if it confirms tomorrow. Trading range was about centered on, and wrapped around, the short-term descending resistance.
The slow EMA continued to decline, but the fast EMA ticked upward (thanks to that phony close) and remained well below the slow. The gap from the slow down to the fast is now $0.0201 (was $0.0247). The rate of descent for the slow EMA decelerated marginally.
Today's manipulated close caused price range to penetrate above the fast EMA but price never approached the slow EMA.
For the second day the low was "pushing" the experimental 13-period lower Bollinger band limit.
Yesterday I iterated my though that we had exited consolidation and begun a down leg, but one more day of confirmation of the break of the two supports was needed.
Thanks to the manipulated close, we didn't get the confirmation as the close was above both the descending short-term resistance and the $0.64 which had been providing some support.
The fly in all this ointment is that volume was falling and was extremely low, suggesting no strength to this "up" day.
On my one-year chart, for the seventh consecutive day we did not trade completely below all SMAs, all of which are falling with them all in order, 10 < 20 < 50 < 200. Our high penetrated, for the seventh consecutive day, the falling 10-day SMA's $0.6505. After six days of trying to get above the 10-day SMA our manipulated close got it done.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement only in MFI (untrusted by me) while all others weakened. RSI, Williams %R and full stochastic all re-entered oversold. Everything was below neutral.
Today had improvement in accumulation/distribution, RSI (exited oversold), MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R (exited oversold), full stochastic (still oversold), and ADX-related (marginally). Everything is still below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6325 and $0.6764 ($0.6312 and $0.6823 yesterday), continued converging as the lower limit rises while the upper limit declines. The mid-point is falling due to the upper limit's rate of decline being higher than the lower limit's rate of rise.
All in, knowing the close, which affects a lot of the oscillators as well as chartists, was manipulated higher, my natural inclination is to call this a head fake occurrence. But with low volume and continued manipulation, aided by MMs who want to make money, it's entirely possible that this will not continue the leg lower but will make a leg up, or at least hold sideways, if one uses the traditional TA tools.
For me, the intra-day behavior and breakdown where I see VWAP and buy percentage movements carries more weight though. So I'm guessing a short-term appearance of strength in price, but not volume will appear as the manipulators work their magic and draw some folks in, but it will be short-lived, weak in the gains and ultimately begin sinking again. All this is expected to occur in a short time-frame, a week or less?
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved independently with short percentage flat and buy percentage up. Short percentage is again just below the top of my desired range (needs re-check) while buy percentage is still well below the level needed to even have a chance of holding price steady.
The spread is just above consolidation levels, thanks to the artificial intra-day high and the close mentioned above. I think it's not suggesting any near-term big move, but that doesn't preclude that action, it just doesn't suggest it as likely.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, after holding for six days at 17 negatives and 7 positives, deteriorated to 18 and 6 respectively. Change since 04/19 is -$0.1469, -18.77%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.8520%, -0.8128%, -0.9712%, -0.8471%, -0.9736%, -0.9789%, -0.8459%, -0.6735%, -0.6459%, and -0.7513%.
All in, consolidation at best and mild weakening most likely near-term.
Bill
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