At some point all the analysis, speculation connection of dots etc etc is meaningless!
This is not science! It's the market a relatively corrupt system for investment.
The most well run companies that follow all the sec rules can and are fundamental corrupt. Examples abound Enron, silver contracts in the 60's, default credit swaps, high speed trading.
It's a gamble no matter how you look at it. Trying to determine what will happen by what has happened is fruitless.
I invested because I believe in the tech. The governance is always a gamble.
So call it what it is a gamble. Nothing more nothing less.